Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. (BNED)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$12.72+4.26%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BNED
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -22.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 45 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BNED — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-24
Other Events. Declaration of Dividend On March 10, 2026, the Company announced that, beginning in the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the Company intends to declare a regular quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share. On June 24, 2026, the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) approved its first quarterly dividend in the amount of $0.08 per share, payable, subject to any prior revocation, on July 30, 2026 to stockholders of record on July 16, 2026. The declaration of any future dividends…
Why it matters: This range shows a big recovery from last year's loss and shows strong operations.
Supportive ifNet income for fiscal 2026 is reported between $15 million and $18 million.
Worry ifNet income for fiscal 2026 is reported below $15 million.
Why it matters: The dividend payment shows financial health. It also shows a commitment to shareholders.
Supportive ifQuarterly dividend of $0.08 per share is paid on July 30, 2026.
Worry ifThe company may cancel or reduce the dividend payment.
Why it matters: A reduction in net debt shows better financial health and efficiency. This can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifTotal net debt decreases below $62 million by the end of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifTotal net debt increases or remains above $62 million by the end of fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Positive revenue growth may show a recovery in the declining sector. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifRevenue growth turns positive year over year for the next quarter.
Worry ifRevenue growth has been negative for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: This will show if the company is on track for its EBITDA growth target. Investors look for signs of margin improvement.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q1 fiscal 2027 is over $20 million. This shows strong growth.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q1 fiscal 2027 is under $15 million. This suggests growth challenges.
Why it matters: Rising unemployment claims could indicate economic weakness. This may hurt consumer spending and sales for BNED.
Worry ifUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims rise above 300,000 for two weeks in a row.
Less concerning ifUnemployment Insurance Weekly Claims stay below 250,000 for two weeks in a row.
Why it matters: Revenue growth helps keep profits and improve financial health.
Supportive ifFiscal 2027 revenue growth confirmed above the prior year's levels.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below last year's levels.
Why it matters: If enrollment reaches 1.4 million, it shows strong demand for BNC First Day programs. This growth can boost revenue and profitability.
Supportive ifEnrollment in BNC First Day programs reaches 1.4 million for fall 2026.
Worry ifEnrollment in BNC First Day programs falls below 1.2 million for fall 2026.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows that BNED is growing and improving its profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2027 is $85 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2027 is less than $85 million.
Why it matters: Changes in consumer spending can affect Barnes & Noble Education's sales. It shows how consumers feel about spending.
Watch forThe Personal Income and Outlays report shows that consumer spending went up by over 0.5%.
Also watch forThe Personal Income and Outlays report shows that consumer spending went down by less than -0.5%.
Why it matters: Management expects top-line growth. Growth signals business health and market demand.
Supportive ifFiscal 2026 revenue grows above $1.61 billion, showing strong demand.
Worry ifFiscal 2026 revenue is below $1.61 billion, showing weak demand.
Why it matters: If revenue grows, it may show a recovery in the consumer sector. This could help Barnes & Noble Education do better.
Supportive ifConsumer sector revenue growth turns positive after being negative for less than a year.
Worry ifConsumer sector revenue growth is still down for another quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $520 loss on $10,000 · 5.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,849 loss on $10,000 · 38.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.