Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BIONANO GENOMICS INC (BNGO)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$1.10-7.56%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Instruments & SuppliesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BNGO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve operating income from negative $7.9 million in Q1 2026 | A primary condition in BIONANO GENOMICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss narrows from -$7.9 million. | Improving | Operating loss worsens or stays below -$7.9 million | Operating income: $-7.218M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss narrows from -$7.9 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 10, 2026-7,218,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 10, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established durable compounder, because the business remains loss-making and risk is high. The thesis has improved from mixed to mildly favorable, but its current state is still watch, with medium confidence.
The valuation evidence points to BNGO being cheap versus peers, with a modest peer premium also reported; model confidence is low, so the comparison is uncertain. The expectations gap is negative, while the priced-in assessment says expectations are justified and fragility is low, suggesting the evidence does not show an especially stretched setup.
Near term, revenue growth and management’s reiterated 2026 guidance support continued expansion: second-quarter revenue rose 21% year over year, and management says the full-year goal remains on track. The secured convertible debt was fully retired by the second quarter, while the new Chief Scientific Officer has not yet produced measurable financial proof. The business remains loss-making, and recent performance is below its industry cohort; weaker guidance or employment data could add pressure to the fundamental setup.
The multi-year view hinges on continued revenue growth within management’s guidance and progress in applying the company’s scientific work, though evidence on the new scientific leadership is still limited. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while continued strength from healthcare sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. The jobs trend is another risk because weakening employment may increase recession concerns for cyclical healthcare names.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BNGO’s thesis rests on converting revenue growth and improved financial footing into stronger business performance, with losses and high risk still central. The evidence is mildly favorable but incomplete, so the long-term thesis remains uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Achieve quarterly revenue of $7.5-$7.8 million in Q2 2026 | A supporting condition in BIONANO GENOMICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is $7.5-$7.8 million. | Intact | Q2 2026 revenue falls below $7.5 million | Revenue: $8.171M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $7.5-$7.8 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 10, 20268,171,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve full year 2026 revenue of $30-$33 million | A primary condition in BIONANO GENOMICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is $30-$33 million. | Intact | Full year 2026 revenue falls below $30 million | Revenue: $8.171M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $30-$33 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 20268,171,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.97 → $-0.97 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.11 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.97 | $43,300,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.