Reading BOLT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOLT free→Reading BOLT? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BOLT free→NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, BOLT trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 85% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because recent financials are weak and earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $4.41. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $4.41 BOLT trades at 2× p/s, below its 10× p/s peer median. Our $26 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 85% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 72%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.17x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by strategy shifts. Historically, Health Care names rated stable grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=618).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-3.52 → $-21.06 (-498.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$316.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$707.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,485.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BOLT yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and a business update. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein and the accompanying exhibit is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus peers.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BOLT BOLT BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 9 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLV
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Bolt aims to report initial clinical data for its BDC-4182 trial in the third quarter of 2026.
Newly stated in 2025-Q4. Bolt plans to report initial clinical data for BDC-4182 in Q3 2026. The financials show a revenue decline from $2,500,000 in 2025-Q4 to $26,000 in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress in other areas. The trajectory for BDC-4182 data reporting remains to be seen.
“Bolt now expects to report initial clinical data in the third quarter of 2026.”
Bolt aims to improve its operating income, which has been negative in recent quarters.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income improved from negative $9,210,000 in 2025-Q2 to negative $7,601,000 in 2026-Q1, showing some progress. However, the income remains negative, indicating ongoing challenges.
“Operating income was negative at $7,601,000.”
“Operating income was negative at $7,085,000.”
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On March 12, 2026, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025 and a business update. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein and the accompanying exhibit is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Sec…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 12, 2025, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 and a corporate update. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein and the accompanying exhibit is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Ex…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On October 1, 2025, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc., a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), implemented a restructuring plan pursuant to which it will reduce overall operating expenses to preserve cash. The restructuring plan includes a reduction of the Company’s current workforce by approximately 20 employees, or approximately 50% of the Company’s workforce. The Company estimates that it will incur aggregate pre-tax charges between approximately…
Other Events On October 1, 2025, the Company announced an update on the ongoing Phase 1 dose escalation study of BDC-4182, a next-generation Boltbody™ ISAC clinical candidate targeting claudin 18.2, a clinically validated target in oncology. A strong immune response was observed at the initial dose levels and the Company is in the process of modifying the clinical trial protocol to allow for step-up dosing, which has been successfully used commercially for T-cell engagers. BDC-4182 preclinica…
“Operating income was negative at $7,703,000.”
“Operating income was negative at $9,210,000.”