BOLT BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC (BOLT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$3.900.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BOLT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -87.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -41.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BOLT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-12
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 12, 2026, Bolt Biotherapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and a business update. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. The information contained herein and the accompanying exhibit is furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act…
Why it matters: Updates on cash runway will indicate if Bolt can fund operations and trials through 2027. This affects investor confidence.
Worry ifCash balance remains above $20 million and confirms funding into 2027.
Less concerning ifCash balance drops below $20 million, raising concerns about funding future trials.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if the company continues to improve operating income. Investors will pay close attention.
Watch forOperating income is not as low as $7,601,000.
Also watch forOperating income is lower than $7,601,000.
Why it matters: Collaboration revenue shows how healthy the business is. A drop may mean partnership issues.
Worry ifCollaboration revenue grows a lot from $26,000 in Q1 2026.
Less concerning ifCollaboration revenue stays low or drops from $26,000 in Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Initial data will show how well BDC-4182 works for gastric and gastroesophageal cancer. This is key for future trials and funding.
Supportive ifEarly clinical data shows that BDC-4182 works well against tumors in patients.
Worry ifEarly data shows no big effects on tumors or safety problems.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$224 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $802 loss on $10,000 · 8.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,515 loss on $10,000 · 55.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in R&D expenses will show how well Bolt is managing costs while developing BDC-4182. This impacts financial health.
Watch forR&D costs go down more, showing better cost control.
Also watch forR&D costs go up, showing problems with cost management.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost management. This shows the company is making progress.
Supportive ifOperating income changes from negative $7.6 million in Q1 2026. It becomes less negative or positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating income gets worse or stays negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Cash balance impacts the ability to fund ongoing trials. A drop could signal financial trouble.
Worry ifCash balance reported below $20 million after Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash balance remains above $23.9 million after Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows the company manages costs well. This can boost investor trust.
Supportive ifOperating income is improving. It is getting closer to breaking even or making a profit.
Worry ifOperating income is getting worse or remains negative. There is no improvement.