BOLT BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC (BOLT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.54-0.46%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BOLT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -83.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -22.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 61.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate) and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 66 industry peers
BOLT — divestiture
Dated 2026-10-23
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On October 23, 2026, the Company completed its business combination with Prana. The information contained in
Why it matters: The deal adds cash for planned trials and other milestones. The company also faces a $4.5 million lease termination payment.
Supportive ifThe $120 million private placement closes. Later company filings report enough cash to support the stated runway into 2028.
Worry ifThe financing does not close, or a later filing shows cash runway ending before 2028.
Why it matters: The vote is needed for Series D shares to convert into common shares. It also affects when the attached warrants can be used.
Watch forStockholders approve the Series D conversion. The preferred shares can then convert under the stated terms.
Also watch forStockholders reject the conversion, or the vote is delayed. The Series D shares remain unconverted.
Why it matters: The data will test whether INSPIRE can produce another clinical program beyond PRA-216.
Supportive ifThe company starts the IL-31 first-in-human study and reports data in H2 2027, as planned.
Worry ifThe study has not started, or no study data is reported, by the end of 2027.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$253 on $10,000 · ±2.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $747 loss on $10,000 · 7.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,515 loss on $10,000 · 55.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.