Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
BOLT BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC (BOLT)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$6.38-2.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BOLT yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow improves toward positive | A supporting condition in BOLT BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Free cash flow yield improves to near 0% or positive. | Broken | Free cash flow yield remains below negative 6% next year | Valuation inputs unavailable A completed valuation measurement is required. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 11, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established earnings compounder: the business is loss-making and its risk level is high. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with recent performance below its industry cohort and clinical delivery still to be shown in the supplied evidence.
The valuation evidence is mixed: BOLT is marked cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a peer premium and low confidence. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in tag is justified, but the snapshot does not specify exactly what investors assume about future clinical results or financing.
Near term, earnings quality and recent performance remain weak, and the estimated risk of a next-quarter miss is elevated. Management says PRA-216 Phase 2 work is a priority, while the October financing announcement is expected to extend operations funding into 2028; neither clinical outcomes nor the longer runway have yet been demonstrated in operating results.
The multi-year view hinges on whether BOLT advances PRA-216 and reports initial BDC-4182 clinical data, while using its announced financing to reach those milestones. Near-term risks include a guidance cut and weaker jobs data; continued strength among sector bellwethers could support the Healthcare backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, BOLT's thesis remains highly uncertain: financing extends the stated runway, but the evidence still shows losses and limited clinical delivery. The key test is whether planned development milestones become substantive results. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in BOLT BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss improves to better than negative $7.6M. |
| Broken |
| Operating loss worsens beyond negative $7.6M next quarter |
Operating income: $-8.374M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves to better than negative $7.6M. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 11, 2026-8,374,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 1 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Research and Development (R&D) Expenses – R&D expenses were $4.8 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, compared to $9.5 million for the same quarter in 2025.” “• General and Administrative (G&A) Expenses – G&A expenses were $2.8 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, compared to $3.8 million for the same quarter in 2025.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Revenue stabilizes or grows after decline | A primary condition in BOLT BIOTHERAPEUTICS INC's published investment case. The stated target is Revenue decline less than 10% or positive growth. | Improving | Revenue decline exceeds 34% next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-19.93 → $-20.19 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.00B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-254.96 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-19.93 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-20.19 | $2,333,333 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-20.19 | $3,500,000 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.