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BRBR
BellRing BrandsNYSEConsumer StaplesPackaged FoodsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$8.81-1.12%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but risk is high and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and management's recent track record has been steady. Peer multiples imply a price about 60% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could lead to a meaningful negative impact. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Staples
- Industry
- Packaged Foods
- Market cap
- $1.04B
- Employees
- 530
- IPO date
- 2019-09-20
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-03
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $8.81. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$21.78consensus
Range $21.13 – $25.09
vs price: -60% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$19.40consensus
Range $17.37 – $34.20
vs price: -55% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $8.81 BRBR trades at 6× p/e, below its 13× p/e peer median. Our $22 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $11–$24. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
5.6x
peer 13.5x · own history 43.1x
Premium
0.4x peer
0.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
-60%
our forecast 10%
Our fair value
$21.78
range $21.13 – $25.38
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 60% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated strong grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=1144).
80th pctl · Consumer Staples
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.23x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
30th pctl · Consumer Staples
Macro sensitivity
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
Not enough signal yet.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
BearishEPS revised -35.3% / 30d, n=14for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.57 → $0.37 (-35.3% / 30d). 0 raised, 14 cut, 14 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 53% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 42.1% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer staples is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.0 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$235.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$660.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $8,743.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
highas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 14d
Watch for Q2 revenue growth to stabilize or improve
Why it matters: Stabilizing or improving revenue growth signals better demand and market position. This is key for BellRing's future.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 5% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 5% year over year.
Material event
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BRBR yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Consumer Price Index data on June 10
- Watch for Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report on June 17
- Watch for FOMC decision on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If BRBR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for BRBR and other Consumer Staples names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If BRBR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-05), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- Consumer Staples has been in a strong run; if sector bellwethers like KHC, GIS, and HRL start showing cracks (missed prints, soft guidance), BRBR and other Consumer Staples names could lose the sector tailwind.
- If BRBR misses again next quarter like this past one (a big miss of -55% on the 2026-03-31 print), expect continued pressure. The Street usually keeps walking estimates down after consecutive misses.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-051mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operation and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, BellRing Brands, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing results for its second fiscal quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference. In addition, on May 5, 2026, the Company published to the "Investor Relations" section of its website, www.bellringbrands.com, a supplemental presentation related to results for its second fiscal quarte…
Earnings preannouncement—
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.