Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$572.33-1.17%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsInsurance - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
22.19 → 22.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BRK-B yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Effective deployment of $400B cash pile | Berkshire Hathaway has a strong cash flow and a $400 billion cash pile that supports investments. | Improving | Cash pile remains idle or shrinks without improving cash flow | Active deployment confirmed via $1.86B recent investments vs idle cash trip Berkshire deployed ~$1.86B in Q4 2026 investments, confirming active capital allocation and reinforcing the improving status. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a diversified financial business with a multi-year view shaped by cash flow and capital allocation, rather than a clear turnaround story. The thesis state is watch: the signal recently improved to favorable, but recent performance remains below its industry cohort and has not freshly broken.
The evidence describes valuation as justified, with low fragility and no concentrated mix of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence. BRK-B trades at a 2.05 premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is modestly negative; confidence in the valuation model is low.
Near term, management continues to emphasize strong operating cash flow, with $10.44 billion reported in 2026-Q1, and has actively issued long-term debt for capital allocation. Earnings quality is fragile, management and recent performance are rated neutral, and earnings surprises have been trending down despite a May earnings beat.
The multi-year thesis hinges partly on management sustaining cash flow and navigating the CFO transition. Near term, rate changes and Financials sector momentum matter: rate cuts could weigh on the sector, while continued earnings strength at AIG, ACGL, and HIG could support it; misses or lower guidance could weaken that tailwind.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the picture is mixed: cash-flow priorities and a recent signal improvement support the thesis, while fragile earnings quality and below-cohort performance warrant attention. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| The CEO transition to Greg Abel is smooth and supports long-term strategy. |
| Intact |
| Leadership changes cause strategic or operational setbacks |
No disruptions reported CFO transition announced; no negative operational impacts or strategic setbacks reported in recent news or events. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain stable profit margins | The company aims for about 5% revenue growth next year and steady profit margins. | Broken | Profit margins decline more than 2 percentage points from recent levels | Operating margin: 17.18% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain profit margins near recent levels. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Aug 10, 202617.182343 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 5% annually | A primary condition in Berkshire Hathaway's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY revenue growth. | Intact | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% next year | Revenue growth: 10.04% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY revenue growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 10, 202610.044858 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$21.49 → $22.33 · observed estimates
$400.26B → $409.85B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $21.49 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $21.49 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $21.49 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $21.49 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $21.49 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $21.49 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-11 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $21.53 | $400,258,066,667 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $22.05 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $22.05 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $22.19 | $409,887,700,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $22.20 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $22.33 | $409,847,600,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.