Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
Braze, Inc. (BRZE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
$45.81-0.63%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.98 → 0.97 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BRZE yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities improves to at least $28M by 2027-Q1 | Cash from operations improves to $28M. | Intact | cash flow falls below $28M in 2027-Q1 | Cash from operations: $24.212M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $28.1M. The stored target says 2027-Q1; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 9, 202624,212,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Dec 8, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a growth-focused software business, not yet a proven profitable compounder. Its multi-year view has improved with stronger revenue growth and company momentum, but the current thesis remains on watch because financial performance is below its industry cohort and risk is high.
BRZE is valued at a 1.59 premium to peers, and the evidence tags it as stretched. The expectations gap is 0.12, though confidence in that estimate is low, so the market appears to allow for continued growth and some re-rating. Fragility is low, but the business remains loss-making.
Near-term results show revenue growth across the first two reported fiscal quarters, and non-GAAP operating income improved in the second quarter; management also raised full-year operating-income guidance. AI product activity is advancing, but the evidence does not quantify AI-specific revenue or adoption, and profitability progress is mixed. Near term, the reported miss risk is low, though peer misses and declining earnings surprises warrant attention.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued platform revenue growth translating into durable profitability, with AI adoption becoming measurable. A guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative; Fed rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could provide a more supportive backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BRZE presents a growth story with improving operating results, but its stretched valuation, ongoing losses, and high risk leave the thesis dependent on execution. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit rises with operating income near $70M. |
| Intact |
| operating income falls below $70M in fiscal 2027 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $895M in fiscal 2027 | A primary condition in Braze, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $895M. | Intact | revenue falls below $895M in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $227.23M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $895M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 9, 2026227,230,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.96 → $0.97 · observed estimates
$1.05B → $1.07B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,255 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.96 | $1,047,756,474 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.96 | $1,047,756,474 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.96 | $1,047,756,474 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.96 | $1,047,756,474 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.96 | $1,047,756,474 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.96 | $1,047,756,474 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,265 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,265 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.96 | $1,047,910,265 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.96 | $1,047,911,565 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.96 | $1,047,911,565 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.96 | $1,047,911,565 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.96 | $1,047,911,565 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.96 | $1,047,911,565 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.96 | $1,048,146,565 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.96 | $1,048,146,565 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.98 | $1,051,501,549 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.98 | $1,051,501,549 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.98 | $1,051,501,549 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.98 | $1,051,501,549 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.99 | $1,062,705,250 | 12 / 15 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.98 | $1,065,827,761 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.98 | $1,065,828,426 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.98 | $1,067,619,177 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.98 | $1,068,869,856 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.98 | $1,068,869,856 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.98 | $1,068,869,856 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.98 | $1,068,869,856 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.98 | $1,068,869,856 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.98 | $1,069,404,857 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.97 | $1,068,061,250 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
| 2026-11-05 | $0.97 | $1,068,060,829 | 11 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 19 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 11 recorded
6 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.