BIOXCEL THERAPEUTICS INC (BTAI)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$0.07-37.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BTAI
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 16.1% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BTAI — legal / regulatory event — Bankruptcy or Receivership
Dated 2026-08-28
Bankruptcy or Receivership. On August 27, 2026 (the “Petition Date”), BioXcel Therapeutics, Inc. (the “Company”) and its subsidiaries OnkosXcel Therapeutics, LLC and OnkosXcel Employee Holdings, LLC (together with the Company, the “Debtors”) each filed voluntary petitions for relief under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code in the United States Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware (such court, the “Court” and such cases, the “Cases”). The Debtors have requested that the Cases be jointl…
Why it matters: Submitting the sNDA for at-home use could expand IGALMI's market. This is key for growth.
Supportive ifA press release confirming the submission of the sNDA for IGALMI.
Worry ifNo submission announcement by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Fixing financial problems is key for stability and growth. This could help investor trust.
Supportive ifThe company announces a plan to improve financial health by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo clear plan is communicated by Q4 2026, or further financial issues arise.
Why it matters: Fixing money problems is key for the company's stability and growth.
Supportive ifA public announcement will share steps to improve financial health.
Worry ifMore financial problems reported in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: Fixing money issues is key for the company's stability and growth.
Worry ifManagement shares a clear plan or update on fixing money problems.
Less concerning ifThere are no updates or the money situation is worse.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue growth and financial health. Investors will look for signs of improvement or continued losses.
Watch forQ2 earnings show revenue growth from IGALMI exceeding $206,000.
Also watch forQ2 earnings show revenue decline or remain below $206,000.
Why it matters: Growing the IGALMI market is key for future income.
Supportive ifA press release about new partnerships or market entries for IGALMI.
Worry ifNo new developments or partnerships for IGALMI by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The FDA's decision will impact IGALMI's market potential for at-home use. Approval could lead to significant revenue growth.
Supportive ifFDA approves the sNDA for IGALMI for at-home use.
Worry ifFDA rejects the sNDA for IGALMI or delays the decision.
Why it matters: Results from BXCL501 trials could show it works for treating agitation in Alzheimer’s dementia. Good results may increase investor confidence.
Supportive ifPositive results from the TRANQUILITY trial for BXCL501.
Worry ifNegative results or delays in the TRANQUILITY trial.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$356 on $10,000 · ±3.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,090 loss on $10,000 · 10.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $9,825 loss on $10,000 · 98.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.