Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Biote Corp. (BTMD)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$1.04-15.45%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.24 → 0.24 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BTMD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA above $38 million in 2026 | Profit targets include adjusted EBITDA above $38 million. | Broken | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $38 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BTMD is a high-risk healthcare business with a recovery-driven long-term thesis, not a steady compounder. The thesis is intact, supported by strong recent performance relative to its industry, but progress on key management priorities has been mixed.
The valuation evidence describes BTMD as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning market expectations appear muted. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, and the evidence shows no elevated fragility signal.
Near term, procedure revenue may improve sequentially in the second half of 2026, but management expects year-over-year growth to remain negative. Adjusted EBITDA fell from the first to the second quarter, and full-year guidance was cut to above $25 million from $38 million; the next results will test whether the revised goal is achievable. The small-cap business also has erratic earnings surprises, while a CEO transition adds an execution watchpoint.
The multi-year view hinges on procedure revenue recovering after the voluntary product recall and on expense control supporting the revised EBITDA goal. A further guidance cut or a weakening jobs backdrop would add risk, while continued strength from healthcare sector peers could support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, BTMD’s thesis rests on a gradual operating recovery, but weak procedure trends, lower guidance, and leadership transition leave meaningful execution risk. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Biote Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is Interim CEO manages transition without disruption. |
| Under Pressure |
| Permanent CEO not appointed or leadership issues arise |
Interim CEO appointed; no permanent successor named CEO Christensen resigned in June 2026; Peterson named interim. No permanent CEO appointed by Nov 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue above $190 million in 2026 | Profit targets include adjusted EBITDA above $38 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $190 million in FY26 | Revenue: $44.232M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $190 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 7, 202644,232,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.57 → $0.24 · observed estimates
$0.20B → $0.19B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.43 | $204,578,250 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.43 | $204,578,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.57 | $204,575,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.45 | $191,150,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.45 | $191,150,750 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.29 | $194,926,225 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.24 | $187,617,250 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.