BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$65.86-5.64%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BTSG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 27.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 18.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BTSG — director transition
Dated 2026-06-12
Director — Dr. Nigam H. Shah: The company appointed Dr. Nigam H. Shah as a new director and member of the Quality and Compliance Committee.
Why it matters: A recent event record flags an earnings miss, while the Q3 release reports higher revenue and EBITDA. The next results can show whether that concern persists.
Watch forThe next earnings report meets or beats its stated revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Also watch forThe next earnings report falls short of its revenue or Adjusted EBITDA guidance.
Why it matters: Home health census rose 58% year over year in Q3. A sharp slowdown would weaken a key source of Provider Services growth.
Worry ifHome Health Care average daily census growth falls below 50% year over year in a reported quarter.
Less concerning ifHome Health Care average daily census growth stays at or above 50% year over year.
Why it matters: Pharmacy revenue grew much faster than prescription volume in Q3. Gross profit per script shows whether that growth is also making more money per prescription.
Worry ifQ4 pharmacy gross profit per script is below $28, versus $28.86 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifQ4 pharmacy gross profit per script stays at or above $28.86.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $404 loss on $10,000 · 4.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,362 loss on $10,000 · 23.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.