BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$60.73-1.14%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Healthcare Information ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BTSG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 30.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 15.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 15.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 21 industry peers
BTSG — director transition
Dated 2026-06-12
Director — Dr. Nigam H. Shah: The company appointed Dr. Nigam H. Shah as a new director and member of the Quality and Compliance Committee.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue growth guidance shows BrightSpring is on track to meet targets. This affects investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue guidance remains at $15.1B to $15.425B, reflecting 17% to 19.5% growth.
Worry ifQ3 revenue guidance is now below $15.1B. This shows possible growth problems.
Why it matters: Slower revenue growth in Pharmacy Solutions may mean the market is full or facing competition. This is important for the company's success.
Worry ifPharmacy Solutions revenue growth falls below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifPharmacy Solutions revenue growth is still over 12% each year.
Why it matters: Falling below this number could show problems in making money.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was less than $795 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q2 2026, Adjusted EBITDA was more than $795 million.
Why it matters: Changes in referral sources can affect revenue and growth. Watching this shows operational health.
Worry ifLoss of key referral sources affects revenue in Q3.
Less concerning ifStability or growth in referral sources leading to revenue growth in Q3.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $419 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,151 loss on $10,000 · 21.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Growth in daily census shows more patients and service use. This is key for future revenue.
Supportive ifHome Health Care average daily census growth above 50% year over year.
Worry ifHome Health Care average daily census growth below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: A successful share buyback can enhance shareholder value and support stock price.
Supportive ifThe stock price goes up after the $60 million buyback announcement.
Worry ifThe stock price goes down after the buyback announcement. This shows market doubt.
Why it matters: Good results from the acquisition may improve growth chances.
Supportive ifQ2 results show a big gain from the Amedisys and LHC acquisition.
Worry ifQ2 results show no big gain from the Amedisys and LHC acquisition.
Why it matters: Revenue growth below this level could signal a slowdown after strong recent performance.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported below 14.1% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue growth reported above 14.1% year over year.
Why it matters: This may show problems in the pharmacy business, which can affect total revenue.
Worry ifPharmacy revenue growth is below 12.3% compared to 2025.
Less concerning ifPharmacy revenue growth is above 12.3% compared to 2025.
Why it matters: Growth in Adjusted EBITDA shows strong operations and good profits.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is over $206 million. This shows strong operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q3 is under $206 million. This may show problems with operations.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback may show that management trusts the company's value.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of completion of the share buyback program.
Worry ifThere is no news about the share buyback program's completion.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal would increase services and reach more patients. This helps growth.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the completed deal by Q4 2026.
Worry ifDelay in the acquisition process or failure to complete it by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops below 17%, it may show weak demand or problems.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth below 17% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth above 19.5% year over year.