ANHEUSER BUSCH INBEV SA NV (BUD)
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
$85.20+1.83%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesBeverages - AlcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BUD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 2 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
Why it matters: Retail sales data can show how consumers are spending. This affects demand for BUD's products.
Watch forAdvance Monthly Retail Trade Report shows retail sales growth above 3% year over year.
Also watch forRetail sales growth drops below 1% year over year.
Why it matters: More unemployment claims can show a weak economy. This can hurt how much people spend on beer.
Worry ifWeekly unemployment claims rise above 300,000.
Less concerning ifWeekly unemployment claims fall below 250,000.
Why it matters: A strong earnings report may show better performance and more consumer demand.
Supportive ifEarnings report on October 29 shows sales growth above 3% year over year.
Worry ifEarnings report shows sales growth below 0% year over year.
Why it matters: The rate decision is a near-term event that may affect consumer spending and borrowing costs. The inputs give no BUD-specific rate link.
Watch forThe FOMC statement signals lower rates or a clear path to rate cuts.
Also watch forThe FOMC statement signals higher rates or no path to rate cuts.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$108 on $10,000 · ±1.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $263 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,664 loss on $10,000 · 16.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: The sector is seen as mature, but recent signals hint at a change. Faster sales growth would support that shift.
Supportive ifBUD reports faster year-over-year revenue growth for two straight quarters.
Worry ifBUD revenue growth stays flat or slows for two straight quarters.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift in the sector's maturity phase.
Supportive ifRevenue growth accelerates back to above 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in competitor performance can affect BUD's market position and plans. It is important to watch peers.
Watch forA big competitor, like KO or WMT, reports much better earnings than expected.
Also watch forA big competitor reports worse earnings than expected.
Why it matters: The report is the next company-specific update. It can show whether sales and profit trends are changing.
Watch forThe October 29 report shows year-over-year revenue growth above the last reported quarter. This confirms faster growth.
Also watch forThe October 29 report shows year-over-year revenue growth below the last reported quarter. This confirms slower growth.
Why it matters: An increase in the risk label could signal worsening conditions for the company. This may affect investor confidence.
Worry ifThe risk label rises from 'moderate' to 'high'.
Less concerning ifThe risk label remains at 'moderate' or decreases to 'low'.