Reading BURL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BURL free→Reading BURL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BURL free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel RetailSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality is neutral and the sector backdrop presents a headwind. Risk is moderate, and compared with sector peers, BURL trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from BURL and the performance of sector bellwethers like TJX and ROST. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $338.45. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $338 the market pays 33× p/e — above the 16× p/e peer median but in line with its own 34× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $180 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $305–$435. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 88% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated strong grew net income 70% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=3229).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.93 → $2.17 (+12.3% / 30d). 15 raised, 0 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 6 maintained. 72% of analysts rate Buy.
6 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 16.8% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$149.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$339.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,955.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 20.5 points (from 33.6 to 54.1).
As of June 12, 2026, valuation rose. The sector backdrop fell, indicating a headwind for the company. Risk remained moderate, while recent performance was strong.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better operating income means Burlington is keeping costs down and making more money. This is important for growth.
Confirms:Operating income was higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Operating income was lower than last quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Improve operating income
Mitigates freight costs, supporting operating income improvement.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition . On May 28, 2026, Burlington Stores, Inc. issued a press release announcing its operating results for the first quarter ended May 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report. The information contained in this Item 2.02, and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of, or otherwise regarded as filed under, the Securities Exchange A…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$305.00 – $435.00 (median $367.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-29
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Apparel Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BURL Burlington Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
TJX TJX Companies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 81 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ROST Ross Stores | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 86 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GAP Gap Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
URBN Urban Outfitters, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 76 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency.
Focus on enhancing net income through strategic financial management.
Why it matters: Higher net income shows Burlington is making more money. This is important for investor trust.
Confirms:Net income reported higher than the previous quarter.
Disproves:Net income reported lower than the previous quarter.
Why it matters: If sector growth drops, it could impact Burlington's performance. This is a key signal.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: This growth rate indicates if Burlington is improving in a slowing sector. Higher growth would show strong demand and effective strategies.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Consumer spending trends will impact Burlington's sales. Strong spending can boost revenue, while weak spending can hurt it.
Confirms one read:Consumer spending went up after the June 17 retail sales report.
Confirms the other:Consumer spending went down after the June 17 retail sales report.
Why it matters: Net income growth is important for financial health. A drop below 5% could raise concerns.
Confirms:Net income growth reported below 5% year over year.
Disproves:Net income growth reported above 5% year over year.