Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Bioventus, Inc. (BVS)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.68-6.48%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.92 → 0.89 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for BVS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EPS at or above $0.75 in 2026 | A primary condition in Bioventus, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=0.75 USD per share. | Intact | Adjusted EPS falls below $0.75 in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
BVS is a higher-risk growth and execution story, not yet a proven profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, supported by strong recent performance and a healthcare-sector tailwind, but earnings quality remains weak because the company is loss-making.
The valuation evidence is mixed: BVS is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 61% premium to peers and an expectations gap of -0.21. Overall, pricing is tagged as justified with low fragility, but confidence in that reading is medium and the evidence does not clearly define what expectations the market has already embedded.
Near term, revenue growth and management’s repeated reaffirmation of 2026 guidance support the current operating trajectory. Pain Treatments grew in the second quarter, and debt prepayments have reduced long-term debt, though progress on that priority remains under watch. Risks include a possible guidance cut, weakening jobs data, and recently filed litigation; the latest earnings report was in line.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management maintaining guidance and turning revenue growth into stronger earnings and cash flow. The view would be pressured by a guidance cut or worsening employment conditions, while continued earnings strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop. Litigation is an additional risk, but the snapshot provides limited detail about its potential effect.
For the 1-to-3-year view, BVS has a supportive growth and sector setup, but its loss-making profile and elevated risks make execution central to the thesis. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash from operations guidance was raised to $84M-$89M, showing improving cash flow. |
| Intact |
| Cash from operations falls below $84 million in FY26 |
Cash from operations: $19.873M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=84 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 202619,873,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue at or above $600 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Bioventus, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=600 million USD. | Intact | Revenue falls below $600 million in FY26 | Revenue: $142.442M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=600 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 2, 2026142,442,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Updating Net Sales guidance to $590 million to $595 million, reflecting growth of approximately 4% to 5%.” “For the twelve months ending December 31, 2026, the Company expects: • Net sales of $600 million to $610 million.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Maintain PE ratio below peer median of 36.5 | A supporting condition in Bioventus, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is <=36.5 PE. | Intact | PE ratio rises above 36.5 | P/E (TTM): 14.64x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 202614.641 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.91 → $0.89 · observed estimates
$0.65B → $0.64B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.91 | $645,464,320 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.91 | $645,464,320 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.91 | $646,276,400 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.91 | $645,529,660 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.91 | $645,529,660 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.91 | $645,329,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.91 | $645,529,660 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $0.91 | $645,329,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.91 | $645,329,600 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.91 | $645,529,660 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.91 | $645,529,660 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.91 | $645,529,660 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.91 | $645,529,660 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.91 | $645,529,660 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.91 | $645,529,660 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.91 | $645,529,660 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.92 | $645,571,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.92 | $645,571,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.92 | $645,571,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.92 | $645,581,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.92 | $645,579,980 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.89 | $635,328,160 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.