BlueLinx Holdings, Inc. (BXC)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$81.81+5.86%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BXC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 5.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 54.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BXC — CEO transition
Dated 2025-12-15
Chief Commercial Officer — Michael Wilson: Michael Wilson is retiring as Chief Commercial Officer with a transition period and compensation agreement.
Why it matters: This EPS shows progress toward making more money. It means better earnings.
Supportive ifAdjusted diluted EPS reported at $0.21 for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted diluted EPS was below $0.21.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth picks up, it could help BlueLinx's performance. The sector has been slowing down.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth rises above 5% year over year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: A big increase could show problems and hurt overall profits.
Worry ifSG&A expenses reported up more than 10% compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifSG&A expenses reported stable or down compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Stable or growing revenue is crucial for BlueLinx's long-term success. It reflects demand for their products.
Supportive ifRevenue reported at or above $731 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifRevenue reported below $731 million in Q2 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$285 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $579 loss on $10,000 · 5.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,738 loss on $10,000 · 47.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop would show less demand, which could hurt future revenue.
Worry ifDaily sales volumes are down compared to Q3 2025.
Less concerning ifDaily sales volumes are up compared to Q3 2025.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for BlueLinx's financial health. It shows they can manage working capital effectively.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported as positive in Q2 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in free cash flow raises worries about cash management and efficiency.
Worry ifQ3 free cash flow reported at $9 million or higher.
Less concerning ifQ3 free cash flow reported below $9 million.
Why it matters: A decline would show ongoing pricing issues and low sales in structural products.
Worry ifStructural product sales were above $250 million for Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifStructural product sales were below $250 million for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A gross margin under 18.0% shows problems with making money on specialty products.
Worry ifQ3 specialty product gross margin reported at 18.0% or higher.
Less concerning ifQ3 specialty product gross margin was below 18.0%.
Why it matters: Sales growth under 4.4% shows weaker demand and market challenges.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported at 4.4% or higher.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 4.4%.