Reading BYD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BYD free→Reading BYD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BYD free→NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResorts & CasinosSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, while risk is moderate and the sector backdrop is a headwind, suggesting challenges in the current environment. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If BYD cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $87.46. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $87 BYD trades at 12× p/e, below its 16× p/e peer median. Our $83 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $83–$100. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 6% near-term growth, in line with our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.47x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated fragile grew net income 45% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $1.88. 4 raised, 9 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 16.8% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$135.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$239.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,259.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows Boyd Gaming is managing costs well.
Confirms:Operating income goes up compared to Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating income goes down compared to Q1 2026.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BYD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Other Events. On May 7, 2026, the Board of Directors of Boyd Gaming Corporation declared a cash dividend of $0.20 per share, payable July 15, 2026, to shareholders of record on June 15, 2026. 2 SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Date: May 7 , 2026 BOYD GAMING CORPORATION By: /s/ Lori M. Nelson Lori M. Nelson Senior Vice President Financ…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$83.00 – $100.00 (median $88.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-24
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Casinos & Gaming.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BYD Boyd Gaming | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | full | moderate |
LVS Las Vegas Sands | — | fair | moderate |
DKNG DRAFTKINGS INC | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 8 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
MGM MGM Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
WYNN Wynn Resorts | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 39 of 100 | fair | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving year-over-year revenue growth across all segments.
Improve operating income through efficiency and strategic investments.
Focus on generating higher cash flow from operational activities.
Why it matters: How much people spend will impact Boyd Gaming's revenue, especially in leisure.
Confirms one read:Consumer spending goes up after the June 10 CPI release.
Confirms the other:Consumer spending declines after the June 10 CPI release.
Why it matters: More cash from operations is important for financial health. This shows better cash flow control.
Confirms:Cash from operations in Q2 exceeds $134.3M.
Disproves:Cash from operations in Q2 falls below $134.3M.
Why it matters: This growth would signal that Boyd Gaming is maintaining its revenue momentum in a tough market.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 4% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: The dividend declaration shows financial stability. A change could signal confidence or concern in cash flow.
Confirms one read:Dividend remains at $0.20 per share as declared.
Confirms the other:Dividend is cut or suspended.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 23, 2026, Boyd Gaming Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated herein by reference.
The disclosure appears to be related to a routine board election.