Beazer Homes USA, Inc. (BZH)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$33.26+0.18%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · BZH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 14.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 62.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
BZH — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-06-23
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information set forth above under
Why it matters: Shareholder approval is crucial for the merger to proceed. It impacts Beazer's future.
Supportive ifShareholder vote passes with over 75% approval for the merger with Dream Finders.
Worry ifShareholders did not approve the merger.
Why it matters: A bigger drop means demand is getting worse. This could hurt future profits.
Worry ifQ3 homebuilding revenue down year over year worse than 28.5%.
Less concerning ifHomebuilding revenue stays steady or grows each year.
Why it matters: Progress on paying off debt shows Beazer wants to reduce debt and improve finances.
Supportive ifBeazer redeems a large part of the 2027 Notes. This shows good capital management.
Worry ifBeazer does not redeem any of the 2027 Notes. This raises worries about financial stability.
Why it matters: Shareholder approval is crucial for the merger to proceed. It impacts Beazer's future.
Supportive ifA press release will confirm that Beazer shareholders voted for the merger.
Worry ifShareholders say no to the merger. This stops the acquisition.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$118 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $423 loss on $10,000 · 4.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,498 loss on $10,000 · 35.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Better margins mean the company is working better and making more money.
Supportive ifHomebuilding gross margin is over 14% in Q4. This shows the company is improving.
Worry ifHomebuilding gross margin drops below 13% in Q4. This shows ongoing pressure.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is key to reaching the low-30% leverage goal by 2027.
Supportive ifTotal debt decreases by more than 10% from the previous quarter.
Worry ifTotal debt increases or stays the same compared to the previous quarter.
Why it matters: A larger drop would show a big fall in demand for Beazer's homes.
Worry ifNet new orders fall more than 4.6% compared to the previous year.
Less concerning ifNet new orders increase or decline less than 4.6%.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks show management trusts the company's value. This helps support the stock price.
Supportive ifManagement announces more share buybacks in Q3.
Worry ifNo share repurchases announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Net new orders reflect demand and can indicate future revenue trends.
Watch forNet new orders exceed 900 homes in Q4, indicating strong demand.
Also watch forNet new orders fall below 900 homes in Q4, suggesting weak demand.
Why it matters: Reducing debt is key to achieving the goal of deleveraging to the low-30% range by 2027.
Supportive ifCompany announces a debt reduction of at least $50 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifDebt levels remain unchanged or increase in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Net new orders indicate demand strength and can signal future revenue trends.
Watch forNet new orders are over 900. This shows demand is recovering.
Also watch forNet new orders drop below 900. This shows demand is still weak.
Why it matters: Better margins help Beazer make more money and work better.
Supportive ifHomebuilding gross margin rises above 14% in the next quarters.
Worry ifGross margin declines further below 12% in future reports.
Why it matters: Ongoing buybacks show management trusts the company's value and plan.
Supportive ifShare repurchases of $30 million or more in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo share buybacks or much lower amounts in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates will show how Beazer plans to manage money and debt after the merger.
Watch forManagement shares a plan. They want to allocate capital and cut debt.
Also watch forNo clear plan is presented, or further debt increases are reported.
Why it matters: These results will show if the company can recover from recent losses.
Watch forQ4 results show a return to making money with positive net income.
Also watch forContinued net losses or declining revenue in Q4 results.
Why it matters: How money is spent can change Beazer's finances and growth.
Watch forManagement shares a clear plan for spending money after the merger. This includes buying back shares.
Also watch forNo clear plan for spending money is shared after the merger announcement.
Why it matters: The merger will change how Beazer operates and its place in the market.
Supportive ifMerger closes by the end of Q4 2026 as planned.
Worry ifThe merger will not finish by Q4 2026 because of regulatory problems.
Why it matters: Growing book value signals financial health and can attract investors.
Supportive ifBook value per share increases to mid-$50s or higher.
Worry ifBook value per share stays below mid-$50s.
Why it matters: Lower debt levels will show progress in management's goal to improve financial health by 2027.
Supportive ifDebt levels are below 32% of total capital in the next quarterly report.
Worry ifDebt levels remain above 35% of total capital in the next quarterly report.