Citigroup (C)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
$124.74+1.65%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · C
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -12.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 8.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
C — COO transition
Dated 2026-10-22
Director — James Flanagan: The filing discloses the routine election of a new independent director to the board and audit committee, which is a standard governance event rather than an executive departure.
Why it matters: Q3 provisions rose 6% from a year ago as Citi built reserves. A further rise could weigh on earnings.
Worry ifCiti reports quarterly credit loss costs above $2.6 billion.
Less concerning ifCiti reports quarterly credit loss costs at or below $2.6 billion. Net credit losses are no higher than $2.2 billion.
Why it matters: Management said Citi is on track to reach its 2026 return target and may exceed it. Full-year results will show whether returns stayed on track.
Supportive ifCiti reports full-year 2026 RoTCE above 11%.
Worry ifCiti reports full-year 2026 RoTCE below 10%.
Why it matters: Citi's CET1 ratio held at 12.8% in Q3. Share repurchases and dividends use capital, so the next report will show if the level holds.
Worry ifCiti reports a CET1 ratio below 12.8% in its next quarterly results.
Less concerning ifCiti reports a CET1 ratio at or above 12.8% in its next quarterly results.
Why it matters: Services revenue grew 15% in Q3, after 18% in Q2. Further growth would support Citi's plan to grow across its businesses.
Supportive ifServices revenue rises at least 10% year over year in the next reported quarter.
Worry ifServices revenue is flat or lower year over year in the next reported quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$92 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $292 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,720 loss on $10,000 · 17.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Citi said it had entered the final phase of divestitures, and 90% of its transformation programs were at or near target. A clear completion update would show progress.
Supportive ifCiti names completed asset sales. It reports that all transformation programs have reached or are near their target state.
Worry ifCiti reports a late asset sale or says transformation progress is below 90%.