Citigroup (C)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
$137.72-0.30%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - DiversifiedSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · C
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 12.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 5 industry peers
C — officer change
Dated 2026-05-21
The filing describes an amendment to the stock incentive plan, not a management change.
Why it matters: A drop below 10% growth could signal weakening demand and market conditions.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 10%.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 10%.
Why it matters: Going over this amount would show Citi cares about giving back to shareholders.
Supportive ifCiti gave back over $5 billion to shareholders in Q3.
Worry ifCiti returned less than $4 billion to shareholders in Q3.
Why it matters: A strong Q3 net income growth would confirm Citi's ongoing earnings momentum and support its RoTCE target.
Supportive ifQ3 net income growth exceeds 40% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth falls below 30% year over year.
Why it matters: More share repurchases mean strong capital return and management trust. This can increase value for shareholders.
Supportive ifCitigroup plans share repurchases over $6.3 billion in Q2 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $6.3 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More non-accrual loans could mean credit quality problems. This can affect earnings.
Worry ifNon-accrual loans fell from $3.4 billion. This shows better credit quality.
Less concerning ifNon-accrual loans rose above $3.4 billion. This suggests worse credit conditions.
Why it matters: Meeting the 10-11% RoTCE target shows Citigroup makes strong earnings and can grow.
Supportive ifQ3 RoTCE reported at or above 10%.
Worry ifQ3 RoTCE reported below 10%.
Why it matters: Higher provisions may show worse credit quality. This could mean risks in the loan portfolio.
Worry ifTotal provision for credit losses exceeds $2.5 billion in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal provision for credit losses remains below $2.5 billion in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows strong finances. It shows a commitment to giving money back to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.60 or increases in Q3 2026.
Worry ifDividend per share decreases below $0.60 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More capital returns show trust in financial health and growth.
Supportive ifThey announced capital returns over $5 billion in Q3.
Worry ifCapital returns fall below $5 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Earnings reports give important details about financial performance. They show how well management is doing their job.
Watch forEarnings per share exceeds $3.15 in Q3 2026.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $3.15 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good use of money. It also gives returns to shareholders during growth.
Supportive ifDividend per share remains at $0.60 in Q3.
Worry ifDividend per share reduced below $0.60 in Q3.
Why it matters: Progress on these plans will show Citigroup's strategy and how well it runs.
Watch forManagement says major sales or changes are done.
Also watch forThey announce more delays or problems in sales plans.
Why it matters: More net credit losses may show weaker credit quality and hurt earnings.
Worry ifNet credit losses reported above $2.5 billion in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet credit losses reported below $2.5 billion in Q3.
Why it matters: Maintaining a RoTCE above 10% shows strong earnings generation. This supports investor confidence in growth.
Supportive ifRoTCE remains above 10% in Q3 results.
Worry ifRoTCE falls below 10% in Q3 results.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth may show weakness in Citigroup's business.
Worry ifTotal revenues show less than 10% growth YoY.
Less concerning ifTotal revenues grow at or above 10% YoY.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $292 loss on $10,000 · 2.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,476 loss on $10,000 · 14.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.