Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Candel Therapeutics, Inc. (CADL)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.04-11.16%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CADL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Advance phase 3 trial of CAN-2409 in non-small cell lung cancer | The company aims to start phase 3 trials for lung cancer. | Intact | Phase 3 trial initiation delayed or halted in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 12, 2026
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative, clinical-stage biotechnology story, with its prospects tied to progress on aglatimagene rather than established earnings. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management has delivered several stated development milestones, but recent financial performance is weak and confidence in the evidence is medium.
The evidence does not provide a usable valuation comparison or a clear account of what expectations are built into the market, so whether CADL is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. No fragility gates fired, but that does not resolve the uncertainty around valuation or the company’s high execution risk.
Near term, earnings are likely to remain difficult to assess because the company is loss-making and has had erratic earnings surprises; the watch estimate puts the chance of a miss at 52%. Management remains on track with the planned Q4 2026 BLA submission for aglatimagene in localized prostate cancer and has initiated the phase 3 NSCLC trial, while also preparing for a potential 2027 U.S. launch. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, and broader healthcare-sector strength could provide a supportive backdrop.
The multi-year thesis depends on completing the prostate-cancer submission plan, progressing the NSCLC trial, and turning commercial preparation into a viable potential launch. Near-term evidence could weaken if guidance is cut or the economy softens; continued strong results and guidance from healthcare bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CADL’s case remains milestone-driven, with execution progress offset by weak performance, uncertain valuation, and elevated risk. The evidence supports monitoring the clinical and regulatory milestones, not treating the thesis as established. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Candel Therapeutics, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS >= $0.22 in FY27. |
| Broken |
| EPS remains negative or below $0 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.52 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.22 in FY27. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 13, 2026-0.52 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Submit biologics license application (BLA) for CAN-2409 in prostate cancer | The company aims to start phase 3 trials for lung cancer. | Intact | BLA submission missed or rejected in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.69 → $-1.11 · observed estimates
$0.04B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.60 | $42,835,110 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.69 | $42,834,483 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.03 | $43,381,779 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.07 | $44,322,931 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.11 | $41,920,384 | 4 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.