Reading CALY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CALY free→
CALY
Callaway Golf CompanyNYSEConsumer DiscretionaryLeisureSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$17.38+3.51%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company is unprofitable. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CALY is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 62% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Leisure
- Market cap
- $3.02B
- Employees
- 28,000
- IPO date
- 1996-05-15
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-06
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $17.38. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$10.35consensus
Range $6.41 – $19.07
vs price: +68% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$28.92consensus
Range $19.33 – $47.78
vs price: -40% below
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $17, CALY's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 58× p/e (3.7× the 16× p/e peer median, and 1.6× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~52% near-term growth vs our ~3% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $11 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $15–$20. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
57.9x
peer 15.8x · own history 36.4x
Premium
3.7x peer
1.6x its own history
Growth the price needs
52%
our forecast 3%
Our fair value
$11.44
range $6.68 – $26.14
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 52% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 48% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=3804).
37th pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.79x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutral2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish9 analysts, 45% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.34 → $0.34 (+1.0% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 9 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 45% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 4.6% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: consumer discretionary is in (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- weak
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$177.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$494.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,037.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · company_momentum_scoremoderate change
Company momentum fell by 29.9 points (from 100.0 to 70.1).
Company momentum fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Risk is elevated. Valuation is expensive.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for Q2 2026 net sales guidance below $585 million
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal weaker demand and hurt investor confidence.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 2026 net sales reported below $585 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 net sales reported above $610 million.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CALY yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like HAS, LTH, and GOLF keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting CALY and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CALY and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If CALY reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-07), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like HAS, LTH, and GOLF start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping CALY and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CALY and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2618d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 21, 2026, each of Thomas G. Dundon and Mark D. Mandel were elected to the Board of Directors (“Board”) of Callaway Golf Company (the “Company”) at the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders (the “Annual Meeting”). Following the election, also on May 21, 2026, the Company and each of Mr. Dundon and Mr. Mandel entered into the Company’s standard form of indemnification agreement for non-employee directors (each. an “Indemnification Agreement”). Un…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-7.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.