Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Capricor Therapeutics, Inc. (CAPR)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$8.60-3.59%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CAPR yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain cash sufficiency through Q4 2027 | The company targets cash sufficiency through Q4 2027 to fund operations. | Intact | Cash falls below levels needed to cover expenses through Q4 2027 | Cash and cash equivalents: $20.935M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash and equivalents sufficient to cover expenses through Q4 2027. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Date unavailable20,935,187 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk, loss-making biotechnology company, not an established earnings compounder. Its long-term thesis is in a watch state: launch preparation is progressing, but approval remains uncertain and recent financial performance is weak.
The valuation model places CAPR at a 1.01 premium versus peers, with medium confidence, and the valuation signal is aligned with its other inputs. The evidence does not specify what approval or commercial success the market assumes, so the expectations gap is unclear.
Near term, cash reserves are declining amid operating losses, even as management says cash is sufficient through Q4 2027 and advances launch preparations. The FDA extended Deramiocel’s action date to November 22, 2026 to review additional data; an advisory committee voted 3 to 9 against effectiveness for cardiomyopathy, while management remains confident in the trial data. A weaker financial performance and a high miss risk make the next results a key check.
The multi-year thesis hinges first on the FDA decision and whether Deramiocel can demonstrate sufficient evidence for approval. If approval follows, commercial readiness and cash management will matter; if the next call brings a guidance cut, that would weaken the near-term setup. Healthcare sector strength is a possible support, but the evidence does not establish how long it will last.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CAPR’s case rests on a high-stakes regulatory outcome, execution on launch preparations, and maintaining cash while losses continue. The recent sector signal has improved, but company-specific uncertainty remains high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Total operating expenses for the first half of 2026 were approximately $79.7 million, compared to approximately $52.7 million for the first half of 2025.” “This outlook excludes any potential revenue from product sales, the potential monetization of a PRV, if received, or other non-operating sources of capital.”
Obtain FDA approval for Deramiocel | Capricor aims for FDA approval of Deramiocel, a key cell therapy for DMD cardiomyopathy. | Improving | FDA approval not granted by end of 2027 | FDA approval pending vs target by end-2027 Positive HOPE-3 data and FDA updates in Sep-Oct 2026 support the approval path. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Resolve litigation with Nippon Shinyaku | Legal action against Nippon Shinyaku may improve pricing terms. | Intact | Unfavorable litigation outcome or prolonged unresolved dispute | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Capricor's position on the underlying dispute has not changed: it continues to believe the pricing structure in the U.S. Distribution Agreement is fundamentally flawed in a way that would impede patient access, and continues to seek rescission.” “The Company determined that the pricing structure embedded in the agreement contains a fundamental flaw that, if unaddressed, would make it unfeasible to deliver Deramiocel to patients covered by Medicare, Medicaid, or private insurance, creating a structural barrier to patient access.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.69 → $-1.46 · observed estimates
$0.12B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.69 | $117,450,889 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.69 | $117,450,889 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.69 | $117,450,889 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.64 | $122,336,800 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.64 | $122,336,800 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.68 | $120,242,600 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.68 | $120,242,600 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.53 | $125,102,000 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.73 | $115,121,444 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.26 | $48,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.26 | $48,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.25 | $99,571,000 | 7 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.26 | $48,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.26 | $48,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.26 | $48,377,000 | 9 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.25 | $82,037,667 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.49 | $76,326,556 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.49 | $76,326,556 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.66 | $67,119,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.66 | $67,119,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.66 | $67,119,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.66 | $67,119,250 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.66 | $67,137,500 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.66 | $67,137,500 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.66 | $67,137,500 | 8 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.60 | $74,199,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.60 | $74,199,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.60 | $74,199,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.60 | $74,199,000 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.49 | $83,762,500 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.46 | $83,744,250 | 8 / 8 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 4 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.