Carter Bankshares, Inc. (CARE)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$31.98+0.66%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 0.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 20.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CARE — litigation filed
Dated 2026-08-17
Other Events. On August 17, 2026, Carter Bankshares, Inc. (the “Company”) and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Carter Bank & Trust (the “Bank”), announced that the lawsuit filed against the Company and the Bank (along with certain other unaffiliated persons and entities) in the Circuit Court of Greenbrier County, West Virginia, by James C. Justice, II, his son James C. Justice, III, his daughter Jillean L. Justice, and various related entities that he and/or they own or in which they have an inve…
Why it matters: If it works well, it could raise shareholder value. It shows good capital management.
Supportive ifThe company signs up participants in the Plan before the first dividend payment.
Worry ifLow sign-ups or canceling the Plan shows weak interest from shareholders.
Why it matters: Growth above $40 million shows strong earnings. This supports management's goals.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest income is over $40 million. This shows continued growth.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income is below $35 million. This suggests weaker performance.
Why it matters: A strong net interest margin shows good loan pricing and funding cost control.
Supportive ifNet interest margin stays above 3.30% in the next earnings report.
Worry ifIf the net interest margin drops below 3.30%, there may be loan pricing issues.
Why it matters: This project could raise interest income by $4.2 million each year.
Supportive ifManagement says interest income is up from the new portfolio.
Worry ifInterest income does not go up or falls. This shows the changes did not work.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$122 on $10,000 · ±1.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $310 loss on $10,000 · 3.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,583 loss on $10,000 · 15.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows demand and good portfolio management. This helps future earnings.
Supportive ifTotal portfolio loans increase by more than 5% year over year in the next earnings report.
Worry ifLoan growth is less than 5% year over year, suggesting weaker demand or portfolio issues.
Why it matters: Earnings performance is key for keeping investor trust after the recent earnings miss.
Supportive ifQ2 net income meets or exceeds $85.8 million, showing strong earnings performance.
Worry ifQ2 net income is below $5.4 million. This shows earnings are still declining.
Why it matters: The repositioning aims to improve asset yields. Its success can enhance future earnings.
Supportive ifChanging the portfolio will raise interest income by over $4.2 million each year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifInterest income does not increase or declines in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend of $0.10 per share shows commitment to returning value to shareholders. Changes could impact investor sentiment.
Watch forManagement increases the dividend to more than $0.10 per share.
Also watch forManagement cuts the dividend or suspends it.
Why it matters: The stock purchase plan could affect share price and investor sentiment. It shows management's commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Watch forMore than 50% of shareholders joined the stock purchase plan in the first month.
Also watch forParticipation in the stock purchase plan is below 20% within the first month.
Why it matters: A stable or rising dividend yield shows a promise to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend yield stays above 1.2% after the dividend payment on August 24, 2026.
Worry ifDividend yield falls below 1.2%, which may signal reduced confidence in future cash flows.
Why it matters: Keeping NPLs below 1% shows good credit management. It supports future earnings.
Supportive ifNPLs remain below 1% of total portfolio loans in Q3.
Worry ifNPLs are over 1.5% of total loans. This indicates possible credit issues.
Why it matters: If revenue growth slows, it may signal a trend change in the financial sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays at or above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: More nonperforming loans may mean worse credit quality and lower future earnings.
Worry ifNonperforming loans increase by more than $10 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNonperforming loans decrease or remain stable in Q3.
Why it matters: The portfolio change aims to boost interest income by $4.2 million annually. This will show if the strategy works.
Supportive ifInterest income increases by more than $1 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifInterest income remains flat or declines in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on the $10 million share repurchase program can signal confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifManagement shares news about the share buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or a cancellation of the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows that the company is stable. It also promises to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifQ3 dividend declared at $0.10 per share.
Worry ifQ3 dividend reduced below $0.10 per share.
Why it matters: The lawsuit could hurt the company’s finances and reputation. A bad result may lower earnings and trust from investors.
Worry ifThe lawsuit ends well for the company, with no financial penalties.
Less concerning ifThe company may face big fines. It could also hurt its reputation because of the lawsuit.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better cost management. This can increase profits.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio drops below 40% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio stays above 45% in Q3 2026.