Carter Bankshares, Inc. (CARE)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$28.48-2.67%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARE
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -7.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 22.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 30.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has been missing across recent quarters and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CARE — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-29
shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall such information be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Exchange Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Why it matters: Loans grew by $36.0 million in Q3 despite $161.0 million in payoffs. Continued growth would back management's lending plan.
Supportive ifTotal portfolio loans rise from the September 30 level in the next quarter, despite reported loan payoffs.
Worry ifTotal portfolio loans fall below the September 30 level in the next quarter. Management reports that payoffs remain high.
Why it matters: The lawsuit followed the sale of a large nonperforming loan group. A court ruling or settlement could add costs or resolve the dispute.
Watch forA court filing or company release reports a settlement or dismissal of the claims against CARE and the Bank.
Also watch forA court filing reports that the case proceeds to trial, or sets out new claims or damages against CARE or the Bank.
Why it matters: The bank bought higher-yielding securities and Q3 margin rose to 3.51%. A further rise would show the shift is still helping.
Supportive ifIn the next reported quarter, net interest margin rises above 3.51%. Net interest income tops Q3's $41.2 million.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.38%, or net interest income falls below $40.0 million.
Why it matters: CARE launched its SBA 7(a) team in Q3, but the report gives no SBA loan totals. New loan figures can show whether the team is gaining traction.
Supportive ifA later company report gives SBA loan balances or originations. It shows growth since the Q3 launch.
Worry ifA later company report says the SBA team has no funded loans, or reports a pause in the effort.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$104 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $250 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,010 loss on $10,000 · 20.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Net charge-offs rose to 1.28% of average loans in Q3. A lower rate would ease concern about fresh credit losses.
Worry ifAnnualized net charge-offs stay above 1.0% of average loans in the next quarter, or rise from Q3's 1.28%.
Less concerning ifAnnualized net charge-offs fall below 0.5% of average loans in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The board declared a $0.10 dividend, payable November 23 to holders of record November 9. This payment confirms the announced cash return.
Watch forCARE pays the declared $0.10 per share dividend on November 23, 2026.
Also watch forCARE reports that the November 23 dividend was canceled, delayed, or cut below $0.10 per share.