Reading CARG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CARG free→Reading CARG? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CARG free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is moderate, while the company is above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. The outlook hinges on guidance changes, as a cut could negatively impact estimates, while a raise could boost momentum. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $27.17. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $27 CARG trades at 12× p/e, below its 12× p/e peer median. Our $27 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $34–$43. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 0% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated strong grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 52% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.04x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Communication Services names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 48% for the rest of the cohort, n=690).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.60 → $0.61 (+2.1% / 30d). 7 raised, 3 cut, 13 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 57% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 21.1% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$163.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$379.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,092.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk remained moderate. The sector backdrop was a headwind. Recent financial performance was strong.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal trouble in meeting growth goals. It could show that the market is slowing down.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CARG yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
of this Current Report on Form 8-K and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$33.50 – $43.00 (median $37.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-28
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Interactive Media & Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CARG CarGurus | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | fair | moderate |
GOOG Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. (Class A) | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
META Meta Platforms | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
RDDT REDDIT, INC. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 54 of 100 | expensive | high |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 3 guided quarters · 5.2% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on achieving a year-over-year revenue growth of 10% to 13% for 2026.
Continue efforts to improve gross profit margins through operational efficiencies.
Aim to increase operating income through strategic initiatives and cost management.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide key updates on revenue and profit trends.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above 15% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Operating income trends show how well CarGurus is controlling costs.
Confirms:Operating income rose above $45M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $35M in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in gross profit margin show if CarGurus is making more money as planned.
Confirms:Gross profit margin increases above 65% in Q2.
Disproves:Gross profit margin falls below 60% in Q2.
Why it matters: Improving margins would show that CarGurus is managing costs well. This could boost investor confidence.
Confirms:Gross profit margins reported above 80%.
Disproves:Gross profit margins fall below 80%.
Why it matters: If operating income grows less than this, it may show cost problems. This could hurt overall profits.
Confirms:Operating income growth is below 5%.
Disproves:Operating income growth is above 5%.