Carrier Global (CARR)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.71+1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARR
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $60 CARR trades at 24× p/e — 1.3× the 19× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $52 fair value is low-confidence here. Analysts target $75–$80. Note: our $52 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($75–$80). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $68 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $78.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $32.07 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $25.30 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $12.76 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Below average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$75.00 – $80.00 (median $78.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-07-30
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $29.74 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $41.99 | 11.6 | 4.72 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $42.50 | 18.7 | 2.27 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $52.66 | 16.6 | 3.17 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $48.29 | 1.8 | 26.43 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $87.39 | 35.8 | 2.44 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $19.20 | — | — | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $49.36 | 19.1 | 2.59 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $39.57 | 18.7 | 2.12 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $58.77 | 16.6 | 3.54 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $56.93 | 1.8 | 31.16 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $126.75 | 35.8 | 3.54 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $37.72 | 18.7 | 2.02 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $63.61 | 16.6 | 3.83 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $61.61 | 1.8 | 33.72 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $137.19 | 35.8 | 3.83 | Analyst | medium |