Carrier Global (CARR)
NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-07-07
$68.67-2.04%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
Reading CARR? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track CARR free→NYSEIndustrialsBuilding Products & EquipmentSnapshot 2026-07-07
Reading CARR? This analysis is rebuilt every market day. Get it tracked free. No credit card.
Track CARR free→QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARR
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $68.67. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $69 CARR trades at 27× p/e, in line with its 24× p/e peer median — but our blended $55 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $62–$79. Note: our $55 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($62–$79). The flat-multiple read looks rich, but earnings are inflecting up — trailing growth is accelerating and forward estimates confirm — so we've softened our read rather than brand an accelerating name expensive. Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $74 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$62.00 – $79.00 (median $75.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 31% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 23.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $3.40/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $75.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $23.24 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $13.63 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $9.82 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $30.35 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $72.72 | 23.8 | 3.05 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $47.01 | 14.0 | 4.26 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $42.81 | 21.7 | 1.97 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $59.61 | 23.8 | 2.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $45.64 | 1.8 | 25.95 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $67.20 | 26.9 | 2.50 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $19.53 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $64.88 | 26.0 | 2.50 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $61.02 | 23.8 | 2.56 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $119.99 | 23.8 | 5.03 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $41.83 | 21.7 | 1.92 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $80.55 | 23.8 | 3.38 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $51.52 | 1.8 | 29.29 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $90.81 | 26.9 | 3.38 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $87.68 | 26.0 | 3.38 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $167.53 | 23.8 | 7.03 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $41.18 | 21.7 | 1.89 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $86.21 | 23.8 | 3.62 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $55.13 | 1.8 | 31.35 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $97.19 | 26.9 | 3.62 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $93.84 | 26.0 | 3.62 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.