Carrier Global (CARR)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
$59.71+1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 14.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 63 industry peers
CARR — director transition
Dated 2026-07-24
Director — Neil Barua: Neil Barua was appointed as an independent director and joined the Compensation Committee and Technology & Innovation Committee.
Why it matters: Adjusted EPS guidance shows that management is confident in earnings growth. A raise shows good momentum.
Supportive ifManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance to more than $2.80 for 2026.
Worry ifManagement lowers adjusted EPS guidance to less than $2.70 for 2026.
Why it matters: Strong orders in Commercial HVAC are key to Carrier's growth strategy. A continued increase signals robust demand.
Supportive ifCommercial HVAC orders grow year over year by more than 35%.
Worry ifCommercial HVAC orders decline year over year or grow less than 20%.
Why it matters: Share buybacks show management wants to give money back to shareholders. This can help the stock price.
Supportive ifCarrier announces share buybacks of more than $640 million.
Worry ifNo share buybacks are announced or there is a big drop in buyback activity.
Why it matters: Finishing the Riello sale affects revenue and earnings plans for 2026.
Watch forRiello divestiture closes by the end of Q2 2026 as planned.
Also watch forRiello divestiture is delayed beyond Q2 2026.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$154 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $323 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,467 loss on $10,000 · 24.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Higher sales guidance shows confidence in demand and how the company is doing. This can help how investors feel.
Supportive ifManagement raises sales guidance for the year to over $23 billion.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers sales guidance for the year below $23 billion.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show good use of capital. It also shows confidence in the business.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $700 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $500 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Updates on share buybacks show that management believes in the company's worth. They have plans.
Watch forManagement says it has completed over $1 billion in share buybacks.
Also watch forNo updates on share repurchases or a reduction in the repurchase plan.
Why it matters: Stronger sales growth means Carrier is recovering. It shows demand is rising.
Supportive ifQ3 organic sales growth was above 3%.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth was below 1%.
Why it matters: High growth in data center orders shows strong demand and good market position.
Supportive ifData center orders reported to grow more than 300% year over year.
Worry ifData center orders reported to grow less than 200% year over year.
Why it matters: Hitting or beating the EPS target shows strong financial results and good management.
Supportive ifAdjusted EPS reported at or above $2.90.
Worry ifAdjusted EPS was below $2.80.