Carrier Global (CARR)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
$53.21-4.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CARR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 6.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 39 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CARR — debt issuance
Dated 2026-11-04
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On November 4, 2026, Carrier Global Corporation, a Delaware corporation (the “Company”), completed an underwritten offering (the “Offering”) of $750 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.000% Notes due 2029 (the “2029 notes”) and $750 million aggregate principal amount of its 5.350% Notes due 2033 (the “2033 notes” and, together with the 2029 notes, the “notes”). The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the Offering to refinance certai…
Why it matters: Carrier raised its sales view, but cut the top of its EPS range. The year-end report will test both targets.
Watch forFull-year sales land between $23.8 billion and $24.0 billion, and adjusted EPS lands between $2.85 and $2.90.
Also watch forFull-year sales fall below $23.8 billion or adjusted EPS falls below $2.85.
Why it matters: Data center orders rose about 300% in Q3. More growth would support the backlog and the Commercial HVAC plan.
Supportive ifA later quarterly release says data center orders rose year over year and the record backlog grew.
Worry ifA later quarterly release says data center orders fell year over year or the backlog shrank.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$94 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $322 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,943 loss on $10,000 · 29.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.