Cato Corp/The (CATO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
$2.600.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CATO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -81.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 19.5% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 101.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CATO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 21, 2026, The Cato Corporation issued a press release regarding its financial results for the first quarter ending May 2, 2026. A copy of this press release is hereby incorporated as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.
Why it matters: More store closures show ongoing problems with store performance.
Worry ifMore than six store closures reported in Q2.
Less concerning ifFewer than six store closures reported in Q2.
Why it matters: Knowing how inflation affects us helps predict future sales and profits.
Watch forManagement says inflation is a big ongoing problem.
Also watch forManagement downplays inflation as a concern in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow may show worse financial health and operational problems.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $8 million in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations stays above $8 million.
Why it matters: More net income shows better profits and efficiency.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 exceeds $9.3 million reported in Q1.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 falls below $9.3 million reported in Q1.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$156 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $538 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,492 loss on $10,000 · 44.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: High inflation can lower disposable income. This can hurt sales.
Worry ifInflation rates for fuel and food rise above 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifInflation rates for fuel and food fall below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher fuel prices can lower customers' spending money. This can hurt sales.
Worry ifFuel prices rise a lot. This leads to less customer spending.
Less concerning ifFuel prices stay the same or drop. This leads to more customer spending.
Why it matters: Opening more stores than closing shows growth and confidence in the market.
Supportive ifOpen more than 2 new stores in the next quarter.
Worry ifClose more than 6 stores in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better cash flow shows stronger financial health and better operations.
Supportive ifCash from operations reported above $8 million for Q2.
Worry ifCash from operations reported below $8 million for Q2.
Why it matters: Lower net income shows ongoing problems with making money.
Worry ifNet income falls below $1.1 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet income remains above $1.1 million in Q3.
Why it matters: If same-store sales go down, it shows problems with customer spending.
Worry ifSame-store sales fall for two quarters in a row.
Less concerning ifSame-store sales stay positive for two quarters in a row.
Why it matters: A bigger drop in same-store sales would show weaker consumer demand. This would hurt revenue.
Worry ifSame-store sales decline worse than -3.7% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifSame-store sales decline less than -3.7% or show growth.
Why it matters: A drop in gross margin would show lower profits. It would also mean cost problems.
Worry ifGross margin falls below 32.8% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifGross margin stays the same or gets better above 32.8%.
Why it matters: Negative cash flow would show deeper problems in operations. This would hurt financial health.
Worry ifCash flow from operations turns negative in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains positive in Q3 2026.