Cato Corp/The (CATO)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
$2.30-2.95%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryApparel - RetailSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CATO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -73.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 22.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 95.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers
CATO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-26
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 21, 2026, The Cato Corporation issued a press release regarding its financial results for the first quarter ending May 2, 2026. A copy of this press release is hereby incorporated as Exhibit 99.1 hereto.
Why it matters: Q2 gross margin fell to 32.8% from 36.2%. A further drop would add pressure to profit.
Worry ifThe November 19 earnings release reports Q3 gross margin below 32.8% of sales.
Less concerning ifThe November 19 earnings release reports Q3 gross margin at or above 32.8% of sales.
Why it matters: Cato says high fuel and food costs hurt customer spending. November price and retail sales reports can show whether that pressure eases.
Watch forThe November 10 CPI report shows lower inflation than the prior report. The November 17 retail sales report shows growth.
Also watch forThe November 10 CPI report shows higher inflation than the prior report. The November 17 retail sales report shows a decline.
Why it matters: Management says added closures may help results in 2027. Better profit after the closures would support that view.
Supportive ifA 2027 quarterly report shows operating income above the same quarter in 2026. This is after the planned closures.
Worry ifA 2027 quarterly report shows operating income at or below the same quarter in 2026.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $528 loss on $10,000 · 5.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,041 loss on $10,000 · 40.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.