Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cathay General Bancorp (CATY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.16-2.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Oct 4, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.95 → 6.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CATY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS must reach target | A primary condition in Cathay General Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is >=2.66. | Intact | EPS falls below $2.66 by December 2026 | Diluted EPS: $1.43 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=2.66. Target period ends 2026-12-31; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 21, 20261.43 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
CATY is a regional bank with a measured, execution-led multi-year view rather than a turnaround story. The thesis is currently intact, with stable management and mixed but generally neutral evidence on earnings quality and recent performance.
Valuation has risen from 28.8 to 42.8 points, and CATY trades at a premium to peers. Expectations are somewhat aligned with the evidence, but the valuation increase leaves less room for weak execution; the available data does not show a high level of fragility.
Near term, net interest margin and net interest income have improved, while non-performing assets declined as loans grew. A recent earnings miss and a history of consecutive misses add uncertainty, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; the supplied miss-risk assessment is low.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued margin growth, sound credit quality, and disciplined balance-sheet management. Guidance cuts or falling rates could weigh on the business, while continued strength from financial-sector peers could support sector momentum.
For a 1-3 year view, CATY has a sound but not decisive fundamental setup: recent margin and credit trends support the thesis, while the earnings record and peer-premium valuation make execution central. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cathay General Bancorp grows operating income steadily. |
| Intact |
| Operating income growth falls below 3% YoY next year |
Operating income: $122.672M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=3% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 21, 2026122,672,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Share buyback program must expand | The bank is expanding its share buyback program to $200 million. | Under Pressure | Buyback authorization does not increase to $200M by Q2 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “We believe these fundamentals, along with thoughtful capital management, will continue to support long-term value creation for our shareholders.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Oct 4, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.90 → $6.18 · observed estimates
$0.93B → $0.95B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.90 | $929,177,500 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.89 | $927,573,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.89 | $927,573,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.89 | $927,573,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.89 | $927,573,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.91 | $930,813,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.91 | $930,813,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.91 | $930,817,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.91 | $930,813,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.91 | $930,813,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.91 | $930,813,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.91 | $930,817,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.91 | $930,817,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.91 | $930,817,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.93 | $931,593,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-11 | $5.93 | $931,593,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.93 | $931,593,800 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.93 | $931,593,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.93 | $931,465,420 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.94 | $928,279,517 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.94 | $928,299,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.94 | $928,299,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.94 | $928,299,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.94 | $928,299,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.94 | $928,299,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.94 | $928,299,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.94 | $928,299,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.95 | $929,079,833 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.95 | $929,079,833 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.95 | $929,079,833 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.95 | $929,079,833 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.95 | $929,079,833 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.95 | $929,079,833 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.95 | $929,079,833 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.95 | $929,063,167 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.98 | $930,996,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-24 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-25 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $6.18 | $954,088,333 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $6.18 | $954,166,783 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $6.18 | $954,166,783 | 5 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.