Cathay General Bancorp (CATY)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.16-2.76%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CATY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 3.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -24.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CATY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-21
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 21, 2026, Cathay General Bancorp (the “Company”) announced, in a press release, its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. That press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Why it matters: The Q3 provision rose to $28.6 million from $11.2 million in Q2. A lower charge would ease pressure from credit costs after recent loan losses.
Worry ifQ4 provision for credit losses exceeds $28.6 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 provision is below $28.6 million, and net charge-offs fall below $25.3 million.
Why it matters: Loans grew by $574.5 million in Q3, while deposits rose by $773.3 million. Continued growth would support the bank's stated focus on serving clients.
Supportive ifQ4 loans, excluding loans held for sale, rise by more than $574.5 million from $21.20 billion.
Worry ifQ4 loans, excluding loans held for sale, stay flat or decline from $21.20 billion.
Why it matters: Q3 net charge-offs jumped from $1.8 million in Q2. The losses came from three borrower-specific loans, so the next quarter can show if they spread.
Worry ifQ4 net charge-offs exceed $25.3 million, the Q3 amount.
Less concerning ifQ4 net charge-offs fall below $25.3 million and nonperforming assets stay at or below 0.47% of assets.
Why it matters: The margin rose for three quarters, but deposit costs rose in Q3. A higher margin would extend recent gains.
Supportive ifQ4 net interest margin is above 3.52%, the Q3 level.
Worry ifQ4 net interest margin falls to 3.48% or lower.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$70 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $179 loss on $10,000 · 1.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,233 loss on $10,000 · 12.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.