Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ceribell, Inc. (CBLL)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$26.01-5.04%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CBLL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross profit improves to at least $23.12 million in 2026-Q1 | Gross profit improved from $18.68M in 2025-Q2 to $23.12M in 2026-Q1. | Intact | Gross profit falls below $23.12 million in 2026-Q1 | Gross profit: $26.34M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $23.12 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 202626,340,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth business, not a proven profitable compounder: it is loss-making, and its recent financial performance is weak. The long-term thesis is in a watch state, with management delivering revenue and gross-margin progress but limited progress in reducing losses.
CBLL is expensive versus peers, with a premium that the evidence links to optionality, or the possibility of future growth. The expectations gap is sizable, but model confidence is low; the evidence says the expensive valuation is not paired with the full combination of weak fundamentals and turbulence.
Near term, revenue growth and higher 2026 guidance support momentum: revenue rose 33% year over year in the latest compared quarters, and gross margin improved from 88% to 92%. However, operating expenses and net losses increased, while a recent earnings miss and a run of misses make execution a key concern; the evidence gives little detail on when losses might narrow.
The unfavorable case is a reversal of recently raised guidance, which would also damage management credibility, or further weakening in jobs data that increases recession concerns for cyclical businesses. The favorable case is continued strong results and higher guidance from healthcare sector bellwethers, alongside CBLL sustaining revenue growth and margin gains.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on whether growth and manufacturing improvements can translate into better loss performance, with elevated execution risk and an expensive valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Ceribell, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss less negative than -$20.75 million. |
| Broken |
| Operating loss worsens beyond -$20.75 million in 2026-Q1 |
Operating income: $-20.548M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss less negative than -$20.75 million. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 3, 2026-20,548,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $112 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Ceribell, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $112 million. | Intact | Revenue falls below $112 million in FY26 | Revenue: $29.341M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $112 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 202629,341,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-1.10 → $-1.68 · observed estimates
$0.15B → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-1.10 | $145,857,810 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-1.10 | $145,857,810 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-1.10 | $145,857,810 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-1.10 | $145,857,810 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-1.10 | $145,857,810 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-1.10 | $145,857,810 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-1.10 | $145,857,810 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-1.10 | $145,857,810 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-1.10 | $145,857,810 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-1.10 | $145,857,810 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-1.54 | $147,069,240 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-1.15 | $145,891,491 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.56 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.61 | $147,099,032 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.61 | $147,102,444 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.61 | $147,106,007 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.61 | $147,106,007 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.61 | $147,102,594 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.61 | $147,074,234 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.68 | $147,360,232 | 6 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 8 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.