Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Capital Bancorp, Inc. (CBNK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$42.60-2.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.83 → 3.86 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CBNK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain $0.12 dividend per share and execute $15M buyback | The bank keeps paying a $0.12 dividend per share and buys back up to $15 million in stock. | Intact | Dividend cut below $0.12 or buyback program halted | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-bank growth and merger-execution story, not a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: loan growth is progressing, but recent financial performance is weak and management execution has been uneven.
The valuation model points to a durable premium versus peers, while the expectations gap is negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions may be demanding relative to the evidence. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, with low fragility, so the snapshot does not indicate that expectations are unusually brittle.
Near term, the recent earnings miss and consecutive misses are risks, even though the estimated miss risk is described as low. Loans grew year over year through the third quarter, but deposits were down from the prior quarter; technology spending continues without clear evidence of a new product milestone. Merger-related costs contributed to lower net income from the second to the third quarter, and closing still depends on approvals and customary conditions.
The multi-year case depends on continued organic loan and deposit growth, better delivery from technology and OpenSky investment, and completion of the Peoples Bancorp merger. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts would weigh on the setup, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CBNK has a credible growth and merger path, but weak recent results, mixed execution, and a premium valuation leave the thesis conditional. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Capital Bancorp grows earnings steadily with EPS rising to about $3.42 in 2026. |
| Intact |
| EPS falls below $0.73 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.80 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.73 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 26, 20260.8 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Introduce new products by OpenSky to improve efficiency | New products from OpenSky improve customer experience and efficiency. | Intact | Failure to launch or gain traction with OpenSky products | Qualitative condition This condition has no defined numerical measure. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.71 → $3.86 · observed estimates
$0.29B → $0.30B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.71 | $290,505,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.71 | $290,505,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.71 | $290,505,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.71 | $290,505,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.71 | $290,505,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.71 | $290,505,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.79 | $295,365,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.79 | $295,365,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.79 | $295,643,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.79 | $295,365,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.79 | $295,365,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.83 | $294,943,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.83 | $294,943,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.83 | $294,943,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.83 | $294,943,330 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.79 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.83 | $294,943,333 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.80 | $294,543,575 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.80 | $294,532,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.83 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-05 | $3.86 | $295,295,750 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 5 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 1 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.