Capital Bancorp, Inc. (CBNK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$36.98+0.90%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CBNK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry over the past month — the reason to own it has weakened.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -34.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.4% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 40.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CBNK — legal / regulatory event — Change in Registrant's Certifying Accountant
Dated 2026-08-14
Change in Registrant's Certifying Accountant. On August 14, 2026, Capital Bancorp, Inc., a Maryland corporation (the “Company”) dismissed Elliott Davis, PLLC as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm, and informed Crowe LLP that the Audit Committee of the Company’s Board of Directors had approved the selection of Crowe LLP as the Company’s independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026. The dismissal of Elliott Davis, PLLC was a…
Why it matters: Flat or lower noninterest expenses while investing shows good management. This helps make more money.
Supportive ifNoninterest expenses stay flat or go down compared to the last quarter.
Worry ifNoninterest expenses rise a lot compared to the last quarter.
Why it matters: A change in auditors can affect financial reporting and investor confidence. Issues may arise from the transition.
Watch forQ3 results show no major problems with the new auditor.
Also watch forQ3 results show major problems with the new auditor.
Why it matters: A steady dividend increase shows good capital management. This can attract more investors.
Supportive ifThe company maintains a dividend of $0.14 per share in the next quarter.
Worry ifThe company cuts the dividend below $0.14 per share in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows management trusts earnings. No increase may mean caution.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase from $0.14 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase announced for Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $261 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,179 loss on $10,000 · 21.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Stock buybacks can signal confidence in the company's future. It may support share price.
Supportive if$15 million in stock buybacks will happen in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo stock buybacks are planned for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising the dividend shows the company is doing well. This can attract investors.
Supportive ifAn announcement to maintain or increase the dividend after the May payment.
Worry ifA cut to the dividend or no news about future dividends.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth shows that Capital Bancorp can grow its lending business. This helps their growth plan.
Supportive ifGross loans increase above 10% annualized from the previous quarter.
Worry ifGross loans growth falls below 7% annualized from the previous quarter.
Why it matters: Slower loan growth would signal potential issues in demand or credit quality. This could impact the company's growth outlook.
Worry ifQ3 gross loan growth reported below 7% annualized compared to Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross loan growth reported above 7% annualized.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs mean more credit risk. This can hurt profits and investor trust.
Worry ifNet charge-offs for Q3 are over $4 million. This shows rising credit losses.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs for Q3 are under $3 million. This shows stable credit quality.
Why it matters: Slower deposit growth may show weaker customer trust. This can affect future lending.
Worry ifCustomer deposit growth in Q3 is under 10% per year. This may mean issues.
Less concerning ifCustomer deposit growth in Q3 is over 15% annualized. This shows strong customer trust.
Why it matters: New products can help grow revenue. They can also improve market position.
Supportive ifNew OpenSky products will be announced in Q4. This shows successful innovation.
Worry ifNo new products from OpenSky in Q4. This suggests innovation has stalled.
Why it matters: Slower growth in tangible book value may show weaker financial health and investor mood.
Worry ifTangible book value growth in Q3 is under 10% annualized. This raises concerns.
Less concerning ifTangible book value growth in Q3 is over 15% annualized. This suggests strong financial health.