Capital Bancorp, Inc. (CBNK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
$42.60-2.70%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CBNK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -25.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 33.0 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CBNK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-26
Results of Operations and Financial Disclosure On October 26, 2026 , Capital Bancorp, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing the Company’s unaudited financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and hereby incorporated by reference. A presentation regarding the Company's financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026 is furnished as…
Why it matters: The merger needs shareholder and regulator approval before it can close. Delays or a failed approval could block the deal.
Watch forPeoples and Capital shareholders approve the deal. Regulators approve it. The companies report that it will close by June 30, 2027.
Also watch forEither company reports a failed vote. A regulator rejects the deal. Or closing moves past the first half of 2027.
Why it matters: Core earnings per share rose to $0.89 in Q3, while GAAP earnings per share fell to $0.80. More merger costs could widen that gap.
Watch forCore earnings per share rise above $0.89 in the next reported quarter, while merger costs stay at or below Q3's $1.577 million.
Also watch forCore earnings per share fall below $0.89, or merger costs rise above Q3's $1.577 million.
Why it matters: OpenSky made up most Q2 net charge-offs. A rise in loan losses could add pressure to earnings and the loan loss reserve.
Worry ifThe next quarterly report shows net charge-offs above Q2's 0.50% of portfolio loans. Or OpenSky charge-offs exceed $2.9 million.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs fall below 0.50% of portfolio loans. OpenSky charge-offs also fall below $2.9 million.
Why it matters: The branch sale could bring about $3.2 million in deposit premium, plus any gain on loans sold. A delay could push out that cash.
Supportive ifThe bank reports that the North Riverside sale closed. It records a deposit premium near $3.2 million, plus any gain from loan sales.
Worry ifRequired approvals fail, or the sale ends. Or the sale closes without a deposit premium near $3.2 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$85 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $233 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,360 loss on $10,000 · 13.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.