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Cracker BarrelNASDAQConsumer DiscretionaryRestaurantsSnapshot 2026-06-12
Watch· this month
$46.69+2.62%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and risk is elevated, with the sector backdrop presenting a headwind. Earnings quality is robust, and management's recent track record has been neutral. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include guidance changes from the company and the performance of sector bellwethers like MCD and SBUX. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Industry
- Restaurants
- Market cap
- $1.02B
- Employees
- 76,730
- IPO date
- 1999-03-15
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $46.69. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$31.38consensus
Range $11.55 – $63.49
vs price: +49% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$22.26consensus
Range $17.28 – $47.81
vs price: +110% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peerslow confidence
At $47 CBRL trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $31 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $37–$60. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
0.3x
peer 1.0x · own history 0.4x
Premium
0.3x peer
0.8x its own history
Growth the price needs
49%
our forecast -5%
Our fair value
$31.38
range $11.55 – $63.51
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 49% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
23rd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 7.42x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated robust grew net income 65% of the time over the next year (vs 49% for the rest of the cohort, n=2427).
93rd pctl · Consumer Discretionary
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +94.7% / 30d, n=5for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.34 → $-0.02 (+94.7% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 4 maintained. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.1% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- weak
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$199.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$536.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,496.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- score change · company_momentum_scorebig change
Company momentum fell by 50.0 points (from 80.1 to 30.1).
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'mild_favorable' to 'mixed'.
- score change · composite_insight_scoresmall change
Composite insight fell by 10.0 points (from 16.6 to 6.6).
- label change · confidence_labelsmall change
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Company momentum fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Risk is elevated. Confidence changed to high.
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 14d
Watch for Q2 earnings results on June 4, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well Cracker Barrel is performing amid sector headwinds.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Earnings report shows revenue growth above the sector median.
Disproves:Earnings report shows revenue growth below the sector median.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1218h agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Revenue guidance for fiscal 2026
Strong Q3 profit supports revenue growth outlook.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for consumer revenue growth dropping below median
- Watch for changes in unemployment claims on June 4
- Watch for retail sales data on June 17
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Consumer Discretionary sector momentum should keep lifting CBRL and other Consumer Discretionary names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CBRL and other Consumer Discretionary names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If CBRL reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-06-09), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like MCD, SBUX, and YUM start missing or guiding lower, the Consumer Discretionary tailwind helping CBRL and other Consumer Discretionary names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CBRL and other Consumer Discretionary names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-094d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 9, 2026, Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release (the “Press Release”) announcing the Company’s fiscal 2026 third quarter results of operations and projected outlook of certain items for fiscal year 2026. A copy of the Press Release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.7 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.