Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$58.370.00%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CBSH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 23.2% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CBSH — officer change
Dated 2026-05-07
Board of Directors Member — Mr. Benjamin F. Rassieur, III: Mr. Benjamin F. Rassieur, III retired from the Board of Directors due to mandatory retirement requirements.
Why it matters: A big increase may show higher credit risk. This could hurt profits.
Worry ifAllowance for credit losses was over $198.6 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifAllowance for credit losses reported at or below $198.6 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More charge-offs could mean weaker credit quality.
Worry ifLoan charge-offs were over 0.30%.
Less concerning ifLoan charge-offs were under 0.30%.
Why it matters: A drop below this level might show less interest income and profits.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.77%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin remains at or above 3.77%.
Why it matters: A high return on assets shows good use of resources and profit.
Supportive ifReturn on average assets is over 1.80% in Q3, showing strong performance.
Worry ifReturn on average assets drops below 1.60% in Q3. This suggests possible problems.
Why it matters: A decline in net interest income may mean pressure on profits. This is due to rising costs.
Worry ifNet interest income reported below $299.8 million for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest income reported above $299.8 million for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in trust fees shows good performance in wealth management and keeping customers.
Supportive ifTrust fees exceed $72 million in Q3, reflecting strong demand.
Worry ifTrust fees fall below $71 million in Q3, suggesting potential challenges.
Why it matters: The company is buying back shares. This shows it manages money well and values shareholders.
Supportive ifCommerce repurchases more than $110 million worth of shares in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNo share repurchases or a decrease in share buyback activity in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show good capital management and trust in the stock.
Supportive ifShare buybacks were over $110 million in a quarter.
Worry ifShare buybacks were under $110 million in a quarter.
Why it matters: Strong net interest income growth shows good control of interest rates and loan demand.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest income is over $315 million, showing growth continues.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income is under $299 million, which may show weakness.
Why it matters: Earnings over $1.10 show strong profit growth. This can make investors feel positive.
Supportive ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $1.10.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $1.10.
Why it matters: A bigger share buyback plan shows trust in the company's value and money management.
Supportive ifThere was an announcement about a bigger share buyback plan.
Worry ifThere was no announcement about a bigger share buyback plan.
Why it matters: Growth in non-interest income shows strong revenue from different sources.
Supportive ifNon-interest income grew over 5% year over year.
Worry ifNon-interest income grew below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Loan growth shows demand for banking services. This helps overall revenue grow.
Supportive ifAverage loan balances reported to grow more than 1% in Q3.
Worry ifAverage loan balances reported to decline or grow less than 1% in Q3.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$71 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $194 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,706 loss on $10,000 · 17.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.