Community Bank System, Inc. (CBU)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$63.85+0.57%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CBU
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 17.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.8 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
CBU — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-28
above. 99.1 Press Release, dated July 28, 2026, issued by Community Financial System, Inc. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded in the cover page formatted in Inline XBRL) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Community Financial System, Inc. By: /s/ Marya Burgio Wlos Name: Marya Burgio Wlos Title: Executive Vice President and C…
Why it matters: Good capital deployment can boost growth and earnings. Investors want to know about future investments.
Watch forManagement announces new investments or plans that support growth goals.
Also watch forManagement says they will pause or cut back on capital deployment. This shows possible growth worries.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would indicate a slowdown in earnings growth. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share reported below $1.10.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings per share reported above $1.10.
Why it matters: A drop in noninterest revenues shows problems with fee-based services. This could slow down overall revenue growth.
Worry ifNoninterest revenues are down year over year.
Less concerning ifNoninterest revenues show growth year over year.
Why it matters: Loan growth above this level helps the business grow and make more money.
Supportive ifTotal ending loans grow more than 1.4% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifTotal ending loans grow less than 1.4% quarter over quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$97 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $236 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,603 loss on $10,000 · 16.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A decline could indicate weakening demand across business lines. Growth is crucial for investor trust.
Worry ifTotal revenues in Q3 fall below $220 million.
Less concerning ifTotal revenues in Q3 exceed $220 million.
Why it matters: Good integration can help make more money and offer more services. This supports growth.
Supportive ifManagement says they reached integration goals. They also report money coming in from ClearPoint Trust.
Worry ifProblems with integration can delay money coming in. This may cause issues with operations.
Why it matters: Noninterest revenues are crucial for overall revenue growth. A decline could signal issues in the business segments.
Worry ifNoninterest revenues in Q2 2026 show growth of at least 4% year-over-year.
Less concerning ifNoninterest revenues drop or stay the same compared to last year.
Why it matters: If they integrate well, they could make more money in wealth management.
Supportive ifManagement says ClearPoint Trust will bring in more revenue in the next two quarters.
Worry ifIntegration problems are slowing down revenue from ClearPoint Trust.
Why it matters: Keeping or growing the margin shows good management of funding costs and loan earnings.
Supportive ifNet interest margin reported at or above 3.46%.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.46%.
Why it matters: Earnings growth is key for maintaining investor confidence. A miss could raise concerns.
Worry ifQ3 earnings per share growth lands below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 earnings per share growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A large drop in deposits may mean customers are unhappy. It could also show competition.
Worry ifTotal deposits decline more than 2% quarter over quarter in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal deposits increase or decline less than 2% quarter over quarter in Q3 2026.