Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CBIZ, Inc. (CBZ)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$54.980.00%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
4.48 → 4.48 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CBZ yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Free cash flow of $270M to $290M in FY26 | Free cash flow is expected between $270M and $290M, supporting capital returns. | Intact | free cash flow falls below $270M in FY26 | Free cash flow: $14.747M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $270M FCF in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 202614,747,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a professional-services company with a mixed execution record, rather than a proven durable compounder. Its multi-year view is on watch: momentum has improved, but recent earnings misses and high risk leave the thesis unconfirmed.
CBZ is cheap versus peers, but the valuation signal is only medium confidence. The pricing evidence says the weak execution is recognized, while the expectations gap is negative, so low valuation alone does not establish that expectations are undemanding.
Near-term results show modest revenue growth but weaker adjusted EBITDA: nine-month revenue rose 0.8%, while adjusted EBITDA fell 1.2%. The Grant Thornton transaction is still pending approvals, and the supplied results do not show clear financial gains from integration or AI work; recent earnings misses and a headwind in the sector add risk.
The multi-year thesis depends on revenue growth turning into earnings improvement, and on management completing the Grant Thornton transaction and showing results from integration efforts. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strength or weakness among sector bellwethers could also change the industry backdrop for CBZ.
For the next 1 to 3 years, CBZ presents a cheap-versus-peers case with fragile earnings quality and execution still to prove. Improving momentum is a positive, but the thesis remains on watch amid recent misses and pending delivery. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in CBIZ, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.8B revenue in FY26. |
| Intact |
| revenue falls below $2.8B in FY26 |
Revenue: $702.24M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $2.8B revenue in FY26. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 2026702,240,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Continuation of share repurchase program | The company has a long-standing share buyback program, enhancing shareholder value. | Intact | Buyback program is discontinued or materially reduced | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$4.49 → $4.48 · observed estimates
$2.96B → $2.96B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $4.49 | $2,959,863,550 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $4.50 | $2,956,946,550 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $4.50 | $2,956,946,550 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $4.50 | $2,956,946,550 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $4.50 | $2,956,946,550 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $4.50 | $2,956,946,550 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $4.50 | $2,956,940,500 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $4.48 | $2,969,109,333 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $4.25 | $2,950,760,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $4.25 | $2,950,760,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $4.25 | $2,950,760,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $4.25 | $2,950,760,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $4.25 | $2,950,760,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | $4.25 | $2,950,760,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $4.25 | $2,950,760,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $4.48 | $2,964,376,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $4.48 | $2,959,064,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $4.48 | $2,959,114,000 | 3 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.