Reading CCOI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CCOI free→Reading CCOI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CCOI free→NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecom ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with performance compared to sector peers being typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 77% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $16 CCOI trades at 1× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $69 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $17–$40. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 77% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 1%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Crisis) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Communication Services names rated weak grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 53% for the rest of the cohort, n=701).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.19x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.86 → $-0.93 (-7.1% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 1 maintained. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$313.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$841.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,187.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Signal changed from 'mixed' to 'mild_favorable'.
The signal changed to "mild favorable." This indicates a positive shift. Risk remains elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind. Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is loss-making. Management is stable and capital-friendly.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Dividends are important for management. They also impact how much investors trust the company.
Confirms:A dividend payment that is the same as or higher than before.
Disproves:A cut or stop in dividend payments is announced.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CCOI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On May 22, 2026, Cogent Fiber, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (the “Seller”) and an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a Purchase and Sale Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with an affiliate of I Squared Capital (the “Buyer”). Pursuant to the Purchase Agreement, the Seller will sell to the Buyer 10 data center facilities (the “Facilities”), together with certain person…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$17.00 – $40.00 (median $23.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Communication Services (broad).
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CCOI Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
WMG Warner Music Group | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
PINS Pinterest | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 73 of 100 | full | elevated |
NYT New York Times Company | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 96 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 4 of 100 | full | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Communication Services names rated stable grew net income 66% of the time over the next year (vs 56% for the rest of the cohort, n=208).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLC
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Cogent continues to prioritize maintaining its dividend payments to shareholders.
Cogent aims to enhance its operating income through various strategic measures.
Cogent is focused on expanding its optical wavelength services across more locations.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is managing costs well. This helps future profits.
Confirms:Operating income improves to a loss of less than -$10M in the next quarter.
Disproves:Operating income worsens to a loss greater than -$20M in the next quarter.
Why it matters: The sale could impact cash flow and help maintain dividend payments.
Confirms:The sale of the 10 data center facilities is now complete.
Disproves:There may be a delay or cancellation of the sale agreement.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Cogent can make more money and keep dividends.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings report shows operating income growth year over year.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings report shows operating income decline year over year.
Why it matters: The company has cut its dividend recently. Future changes will show if it can maintain payouts.
Confirms:The company announces a dividend payment of $0.02 or higher for the next quarter.
Disproves:The company will cut the dividend payment to less than $0.02.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 4, 2026, Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. issued a press release summarizing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026. The Company will hold a conference call regarding its financial results at 8:30 a.m. ET on May 4, 2026, which will be simultaneously broadcast on a link available through the Company’s website at www.cogentco.com. The press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K. The informat…
The filing primarily discusses the approval of a new incentive plan and an award to the CEO, which are not management changes.