CareDx, Inc. (CDNA)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
$50.88+2.05%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Diagnostics & ResearchSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CDNA
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 1.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 11.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 32 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CDNA — litigation filed
Dated 2026-04-16
and in the attached Exhibit 99.1 shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K contains fo…
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how revenue is growing. They will also show how the company is performing.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above 10% year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher revenue guidance would show strong growth momentum. This could boost investor confidence.
Supportive ifManagement raises revenue guidance for 2026. This is higher than what was expected.
Worry ifManagement keeps revenue guidance the same or lowers it.
Why it matters: CareDx announced a $100 million buyback program. This shows they want to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifCareDx says it is buying back shares as part of the $100 million program.
Worry ifNo updates on share buybacks after six months.
Why it matters: A good merger with Naveris could help CareDx grow and improve its market position.
Supportive ifManagement gives good news about the merger process. They talk about the benefits gained.
Worry ifThere are reports of problems in the merger. This affects operations and guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$208 on $10,000 · ±2.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $440 loss on $10,000 · 4.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,364 loss on $10,000 · 23.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: CareDx's revenue guidance shows it is growing in precision medicine. This shows management's confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue guidance confirmed to be between $447 million and $465 million.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue guidance revised down below $447 million.
Why it matters: Knowing the financial impact of the Lab Products sale will clarify CareDx's focus and growth.
Watch forManagement shares good financial news after the sale. This shows better focus and growth.
Also watch forThere are reports of negative financial impacts or problems after the sale.
Why it matters: The merger could help CareDx grow and reach more customers in precision medicine.
Supportive ifThe merger with Naveris is completed and announced.
Worry ifThe merger might face big delays or could be canceled.
Why it matters: Selling parts of the business will make operations simpler. This could help make more money.
Supportive ifThe Lab Products divestiture closes by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe divestiture is delayed beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth shows that people still want CareDx's testing services.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue grew over 50% from last year, reaching more than $132 million.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 40% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Finishing the buyback program shows a promise to give value back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of completed buyback of at least $50 million of shares.
Worry ifNo major buyback activity was reported by the end of Q3.