CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.10-0.34%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - Pollution & Treatment ControlsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CECO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 70.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 72.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 6 industry peers
CECO — CEO transition
Dated 2026-06-01
Director — Marcus J. George, Victor L. Richey: Two new directors were appointed as part of a merger agreement.
Why it matters: Good integration and cost savings from the Thermon deal can help growth and profits.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save at least $40 million in costs sooner than planned.
Worry ifManagement says there are problems or delays with integration and cost savings.
Why it matters: This would show strong profits and support management's growth plans.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA was at or above $195 million.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was under $175 million. This shows there may be profit issues.
Why it matters: Hitting this growth target shows strong demand and good work after the acquisition.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth meets or exceeds 20% year-over-year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Changes to revenue guidance show the company can meet growth goals and market needs.
Supportive ifManagement raises full-year revenue guidance to above $1.375 billion. This shows strong demand.
Worry ifRevenue guidance stays the same or goes down. This suggests weaker market conditions.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$231 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $543 loss on $10,000 · 5.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,998 loss on $10,000 · 40.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Integrating Thermon well is important for growth and working together. It impacts future income and profits.
Watch forThere is good news about how the Thermon acquisition is going. The teamwork is strong.
Also watch forReports of integration challenges or delays that could hinder growth.
Why it matters: Hitting this target would show CECO's strong growth after the acquisition.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue reported at or above $1.325 billion.
Worry ifQ2 revenue was below $1.275 billion, which shows weaker performance.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a recovery for CECO and its peers. This is important as the sector is currently maturing and slowing down.
Supportive if3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector increases back toward 10% or higher.
Worry ifRevenue growth over the last 3 years is under 5%. This shows it is slowing down.
Why it matters: This will show strong profits and support management's focus on earnings.
Supportive ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA grew by over 25% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ2 Adjusted EBITDA grew by less than 25% compared to last year.
Why it matters: Stable free cash flow conversion is crucial for financial health and funding future growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow conversion exceeds 55% of Adjusted EBITDA.
Worry ifFree cash flow conversion stays below 55%, showing ongoing problems.