Reading CELH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CELH free→Reading CELH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CELH free→NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CELH trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 271% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $29.18. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $29, CELH's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 73× p/e (4.2× the 17× p/e peer median, and 0.8× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~309% near-term growth vs our ~100% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $7.13 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $41–$64. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 309% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 100%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=1526).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.90x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Consumer Staples names rated neutral grew net income 52% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1382).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.47 → $0.43 (-7.6% / 30d). 2 raised, 14 cut, 17 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 83% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 72.0% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$274.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$559.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,722.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: CPI data affects consumer spending. It can impact Celsius' sales and pricing strategy.
Confirms one read:CPI reported above 3% year over year.
Confirms the other:CPI reported below 2% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CELH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Celsius Holdings, Inc., a Nevada corporation ("Celsius"), issued an earnings release announcing its financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 and that Celsius' management team will host a webcast that day at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss the financial results with the investment community. A copy of the earnings release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by re…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$41.00 – $64.00 (median $47.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CELH Celsius Holdings | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 26 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
KO Coca-Cola Company (The) | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 59 of 100 | expensive | low |
PEP PepsiCo | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 84 of 100 | full | low |
MNST Monster Beverage | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
KDP Keurig Dr Pepper | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | fair | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLP
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue through strategic initiatives and market expansion.
Enhance operating income through cost management and efficiency improvements.
Focus on increasing gross profit through margin improvements and cost control.
Why it matters: If sector growth improves, it could benefit Celsius. It shows the market is recovering.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth reported below 3% year over year.
Why it matters: Better operating income means better cost management. This helps make more money in the long run.
Confirms:Operating income reported up more than 10% year over year.
Disproves:Operating income is down compared to last year.
Why it matters: Keeping this level shows good cost management. It also supports the growth plan. This means the company is making more money.
Confirms:Operating income is over $100 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating income falls below $100 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong revenue growth would show Celsius is expanding as planned. This supports management's top priority.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported above 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A higher gross profit margin shows good pricing and cost control. It shows the company can make more money.
Confirms:Gross profit margin exceeds 48% in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Gross profit margin falls below 48% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Improving sector growth signals could help Celsius overcome its current headwinds. It would indicate a better environment for revenue growth.
Confirms one read:Consumer Staples sector shows revenue growth above 6% year over year.
Confirms the other:Consumer Staples sector growth remains below 5% year over year.