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CERS
Cerus Corp.NASDAQHealth CareMedical DevicesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$2.56-1.16%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price roughly in line with where it trades (about fair); the read is fair, but weakening. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Health Care
- Industry
- Medical Devices
- Market cap
- $518.96M
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-09-04
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-04
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $2.56. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$2.39consensus
Range $2.05 – $2.72
vs price: +7% above
Method agreement — · 2 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$8.31consensus
Range $7.01 – $9.60
vs price: -69% below
Method agreement — · 2 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Re-ratingmedium confidence
At $2.56 CERS trades at 4× p/s — 1.5× the 3× p/s peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $2.42 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
4.3x
peer 2.9x · own history —
Premium
1.5x peer
Growth the price needs
6%
our forecast —
Our fair value
$2.42
range $2.07 – $2.78
WhyEarnings too small for P/E
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair — but weakening12-month view
What's priced in
The market is pricing in roughly 6% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Health Care names rated neutral grew net income 50% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3115).
68th pctl · Health Care
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -0.28x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatile4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Health Care names rated volatile grew net income 43% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=600).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
NeutralEPS revised +60.0% / 30d, n=2for period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $-0.03 → $-0.01 (+60.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 2 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: health care is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.5 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutralProvisional
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-12
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$257.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$666.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,832.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
No named catalysts to watch right now. Check back after the next earnings report.
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CERS yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for Health Care revenue growth dropping below 8% YoY
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Healthcare sector momentum should keep lifting CERS and other Healthcare names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CERS and other Healthcare names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If CERS beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a big beat of +30% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
Downside triggers
- If CERS reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-30), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like ABT, SYK, and MDT start missing or guiding lower, the Healthcare tailwind helping CERS and other Healthcare names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-085d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 5, 2026, (the “Closing Date”), Cerus Corporation (the “Company”) entered into (i) a Second Amended and Restated Credit, Security and Guaranty Agreement (Term Loan) (the “Term Loan Credit Agreement”), by and among the Company, the lenders party thereto from time to time (the “Term Loan Lenders”) and MidCap Financial Trust, as agent and a lender, which amended and restated the Company’s existing Amended and Restated Credit, Security and Guaran…
Capital allocationpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+0.9 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.