CF Bankshares, Inc. (CFBK)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.70+1.51%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CFBK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -30.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 24.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CFBK — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, CF Bankshares Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “Earnings Release”). A copy of the Earnings Release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated by reference herein.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would affect CF Bankshares' performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below the median of the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of the last three years.
Why it matters: Loan growth is key for increasing interest income, which supports overall earnings.
Supportive ifLoan growth exceeds 5% quarter over quarter.
Worry ifLoan growth is below 2% quarter over quarter.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates and lending rules. This affects bank profits and growth.
Watch forFOMC raises interest rates. This helps banks' net interest margins.
Also watch forFOMC keeps rates the same or lowers them. This may hurt margins.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sector growth could impact CF Bankshares' performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median of 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A lower efficiency ratio means better cost management. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifThe efficiency ratio is below 55%. This shows that expenses are managed well.
Worry ifThe efficiency ratio is above 60%. This suggests higher costs or problems in operations.
Why it matters: Growth in residential mortgage lending can boost fee income and overall profits.
Supportive ifResidential mortgage loan volumes rise a lot. This shows successful expansion efforts.
Worry ifResidential mortgage loan volumes fall. This suggests challenges in the mortgage market.
Why it matters: A drop in nonaccrual loans shows better asset quality and good risk management.
Supportive ifNonaccrual loans are below $20.3 million.
Worry ifNonaccrual loans are above $20.3 million.
Why it matters: If it drops below $5.0M, it shows ongoing problems with earnings growth.
Worry ifQ2 net income reported below $5.0M.
Less concerning ifQ2 net income reported above $5.0M.
Why it matters: If loans grow more than 5%, management can earn more from interest.
Supportive ifLoan growth reported above 5% for Q2.
Worry ifLoan growth reported below 0% for Q2.
Why it matters: Higher residential mortgage sales show success in this area. This helps overall growth.
Supportive ifResidential mortgage loan sales are over $16 million. This confirms good growth strategies in this area.
Worry ifResidential mortgage loan sales are under $14 million. This shows challenges in this market.
Why it matters: An extension or increase in the buyback program can signal confidence in the stock.
Supportive ifManagement says they will extend the stock buyback program.
Worry ifNo updates or a cancellation of the stock repurchase program.
Why it matters: A decline in loan payoffs supports the expectation of stronger loan growth. This is critical for future revenue.
Supportive ifLoan payoffs drop a lot compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifLoan payoffs remain high or increase compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: A stable or better net interest margin is key for profit. It shows good management of interest income and costs.
Watch forNet interest margin for Q3 2026 stays above 2.90%.
Also watch forNet interest margin for Q3 2026 falls below 2.90%.
Why it matters: Growth in noninterest income shows the bank is diversifying its revenue. This helps manage pressures.
Supportive ifNoninterest income growth is over 10% year over year. This confirms good fee income strategies.
Worry ifNoninterest income growth is under 5% year over year. This shows possible issues with fee income.
Why it matters: The financial sector has been growing, but a drop in revenue growth could signal trouble for CF Bankshares. This could affect investor confidence.
Worry ifCF Bankshares revenue growth drops below the sector median of 15%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth stays above the sector median.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows strong performance. It also shows good management strategies.
Supportive ifQ3 net income grows more than 18% compared to Q2 2026's $5.9 million.
Worry ifQ3 net income growth is less than or equal to 18%.
Why it matters: Higher noninterest income shows success in fee-based services. This is important for growth.
Supportive ifQ3 noninterest income increases more than 14% from Q2 2026's $1.7 million.
Worry ifQ3 noninterest income growth is less than or equal to 14%.
Why it matters: Strong commercial loan growth shows the bank's ability to attract and retain business clients.
Supportive ifQ3 commercial loan growth exceeds $52 million from Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 commercial loan growth is less than or equal to $52 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$73 on $10,000 · ±0.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $218 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,945 loss on $10,000 · 19.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.