CG oncology, Inc. (CGON)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.67+0.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CGON
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -8.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | Not available |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
A comparable growth gap is not available.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name is on a run of consecutive earnings misses and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 398 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CGON — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, CG Oncology, Inc. issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. In accordance with General Instruction B.2 of Form 8-K, the information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Ac…
Why it matters: Rising cash burn and losses may mean financial trouble. Investors should watch this closely.
Worry ifOperating losses go down or cash burn levels off.
Less concerning ifOperating losses go up or cash burn gets much worse.
Why it matters: This report will show if cash burn and operating losses are improving or worsening.
Worry ifOperating losses decrease from negative $66.4M in Q1 2026 to less than negative $60M.
Less concerning ifOperating losses increase beyond negative $66.4M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: A big change in cash could hurt the company's ability to fund operations and trials.
Worry ifCash and securities are over $1 billion.
Less concerning ifCash and securities are under $800 million.
Why it matters: Growing losses may show bigger financial problems. This could hurt investor trust.
Worry ifOperating losses worsen beyond $66.4M in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating losses improve or stay below $66.4M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$216 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $452 loss on $10,000 · 4.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,741 loss on $10,000 · 27.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Increasing cash burn could impact CGON's ability to fund operations and trials.
Worry ifQuarterly cash burn exceeds negative $56.9M.
Less concerning ifCash burn is better or stays below negative $56.9M.
Why it matters: The COO's exit could affect how the company runs and its strategy.
Worry ifA new COO is appointed. They have the right experience to stabilize leadership.
Less concerning ifNo new COO is appointed. This leads to more instability in leadership.
Why it matters: This trial will help us understand how well cretostimogene works with gemcitabine.
Watch forCORE-008 Cohort CX shows strong results.
Also watch forCORE-008 Cohort CX shows weak results.
Why it matters: Topline data will show how effective cretostimogene is for bladder cancer treatment. This is a key milestone for the company.
Supportive ifThe PIVOT-006 trial shows good results for cretostimogene.
Worry ifThe PIVOT-006 trial shows poor results.
Why it matters: A bigger net loss may show financial problems. This could hurt investor trust in CG Oncology.
Worry ifNet loss for Q3 2026 is reported below $80 million.
Less concerning ifNet loss for Q3 2026 exceeds $80 million.
Why it matters: Completing the BLA submission is crucial for getting cretostimogene approved for use. This could open new revenue streams.
Supportive ifBLA submission is completed as planned in Q4 2026.
Worry ifBLA submission is delayed beyond Q4 2026.