Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
CG oncology, Inc. (CGON)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$64.80-4.30%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CGON yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain stable leadership after recent executive changes | Leadership changes may help the company run better. | Under Pressure | Additional key executive departures in 2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a clinical-stage biotechnology company, so the thesis depends on trial results and regulatory progress rather than established earnings. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: management is progressing on key milestones, but recent performance is weak and risk has risen.
The evidence snapshot provides no valuation measure or specific account of market expectations, so whether CGON is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers is unclear. It also reports low fragility, meaning no flagged signals that expectations are unusually concentrated or vulnerable.
Near term, consecutive earnings misses and a high stated risk of another miss leave performance uncertain; the risk label recently moved from moderate to elevated. Over the multi-year view, the Phase 3 trial and planned regulatory filing are important progress points, while the company reports cash sufficient to fund operations through 2029.
The thesis hinges on the PIVOT-006 trial data and the expected Q4 2026 BLA submission, which is a regulatory application. A guidance cut or further weak results would add to execution concerns; stronger results from major healthcare peers could support sector momentum, though that is not company-specific evidence.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, CGON remains a milestone-driven thesis with meaningful clinical, regulatory, and near-term earnings risk, alongside reported progress on its priorities. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in CG oncology, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is Operating loss no worse than negative $66.4M in 2026-Q1. |
| Improving |
| Operating loss worsens beyond negative $70M in 2026-Q1 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “• Net Loss : Net loss was $79.1 million, or $(0.90) per share, for the second quarter of 2026, as compared to a net loss of $41.4 million, or $(0.54) per share, for the prior year period.” “• Net Loss : Net loss was $60.2 million, or $(0.71) per share, for the first quarter of 2026, as compared to a net loss of $34.5 million, or $(0.45) per share, for the prior year period.” Net income was $-79.056 million in 2026-Q2. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Complete and report Phase 3 PIVOT-006 trial topline data | CG Oncology is close to finishing a big Phase 3 trial. | Improving | Topline data not reported by mid-2026 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: “PIVOT-006 has accrued the vast majority of the target events, and we look forward to sharing topline results soon.” “We look forward to a number of meaningful near ‑ term milestones for CG, including anticipated topline data from the Phase 3 PIVOT ‑ 006 trial in intermediate ‑ risk NMIBC in the coming months, as well as the | first results from the Phase 2 CORE ‑ 008 Cohort CX in high ‑ risk BCG ‑ exposed and BCG-unresponsive patients, to be presented at AUA.”” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Achieve revenue of about $1.1 billion by end of 2026 | The company plans about $1.1 billion in revenue by end of 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-2.82 → $-3.13 · observed estimates
$0.09B → $0.08B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-2.75 | $88,260,970 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-2.75 | $88,260,970 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-2.75 | $88,260,970 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-2.78 | $95,616,060 | 11 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-2.85 | $115,262,880 | 12 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-2.90 | $91,537,360 | 12 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-2.82 | $85,021,186 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-3.03 | $88,114,144 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-3.13 | $80,665,628 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-3.13 | $80,634,700 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-3.13 | $80,641,843 | 11 / 10 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 13, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.