Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Cognition Therapeutics Inc (CGTX)
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.64-7.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareBiotechnologySnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for CGTX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain sufficient cash to fund operations through Q2 2027 | It has enough cash to operate through Q2 2027. | Intact | Cash falls short of funding operations through Q2 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative clinical-stage growth, not an established earnings compounder. The 1-to-3-year thesis remains in a watch state: management has made regulatory and planning progress, but the evidence does not yet establish trial execution or clinical results.
The evidence snapshot provides no valuation or market-expectations data, so whether the shares are cheap or expensive versus peers, or what expectations are already reflected, cannot be assessed. The business is loss-making, and confidence in the evidence is low.
Near term, the company remains loss-making, although reported operating expenses were lower year over year in the first and second quarters of 2026. Cash and management's stated runway improved, with the stated runway moving to the fourth quarter of 2027, but this does not establish trial delivery. Recent earnings beats are positive context, while the risk label has risen to high and the company remains worth watching into its next financial update.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on advancing zervimesine into a registrational DLB trial and generating evidence from the START study; the supplied evidence shows planning and regulatory progress, not trial outcomes. Near term, a guidance cut is a stated negative trigger, while continued strength among healthcare bellwethers is a potential sector tailwind. Weaker jobs data could raise recession concerns, and the snapshot gives limited evidence on how that would affect this company specifically.
The 1-to-3-year view is highly uncertain: runway and planning have advanced, but clinical delivery and a clear valuation picture are not established. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Operating losses improved from $13.7M to $8.8M. |
| Broken |
| Operating loss worsens beyond negative $8.8M next quarter |
Operating income: $-7.738M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating loss improves to better than negative $8.8M per quarter. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Aug 7, 2026-7,738,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Advance toward regulatory approval for Dementia with Lewy Bodies (DLB) | A supporting condition in Cognition Therapeutics Inc's published investment case. The stated target is Progress to registrational trial or regulatory approval for DLB. | Improving | No progress or setbacks in DLB regulatory pathway within 12 months | Qualitative progress: 2 positive DLB events (May-Jun 2026) vs 12-month target News confirms DLB program extension and movement toward registrational trial in May and June 2026. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.28 → $-0.22 · observed estimates
$0.00B → $0.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.28 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.28 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.28 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.28 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.28 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.28 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.28 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.28 | $41,928,400 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.28 | $0 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.23 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.28 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.28 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.28 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.28 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.23 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.23 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.23 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.23 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-11 | $-0.23 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.23 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.22 | $0 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.23 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.23 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.23 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.23 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.23 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.23 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.22 | $41,928,400 | 2 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.