Community Healthcare Trust, Inc. (CHCT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$15.00+0.67%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHCT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 6.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 3.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and has erratic recent earnings surprises. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 15 industry peers
CHCT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. This information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of t…
Why it matters: Stabilizing or improving net income is key. It helps keep investor trust and dividends.
Supportive ifQ2 net income increases from $2.548 million reported in Q1.
Worry ifQ2 net income decreases further from the Q1 figure.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the real estate sector speeds up, it could benefit Community Healthcare Trust.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds up to 5% or more.
Worry ifSector revenue growth slows down to below 5%.
Why it matters: Selling the tenant's business may affect rental income. It could change future lease agreements.
Watch forThe tenant completes the sale and signs new leases on the six hospitals.
Also watch forThe sale transaction fails or is significantly delayed beyond Q4 2026.
Why it matters: A steady payout ratio shows good capital management. It may lead to future dividend growth.
Watch forThe AFFO payout ratio remains around 60% for the next two quarters.
Also watch forThe AFFO payout ratio rises above 70% in the next two quarters.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$102 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $261 loss on $10,000 · 2.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,397 loss on $10,000 · 24.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Keeping capital is key for funding growth plans after the dividend cut.
Supportive ifRetained capital increases by $25 million to $30 million over the next two years.
Worry ifRetained capital falls short of $25 million within the next two years.
Why it matters: This deal could affect rental income and tenant stability.
Watch forThe deal closes successfully and new leases are signed.
Also watch forThe transaction fails to close or is significantly delayed.
Why it matters: Stable rent payments are crucial for cash flow and indicate tenant health.
Supportive ifRent payments from the tenant increase or remain stable in the next quarter.
Worry ifRent payments from the tenant decline or are missed in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More people living in the property helps increase revenue. It shows how well management is doing.
Supportive ifOccupancy rate reaches 92% or higher by Q4 2027.
Worry ifOccupancy rate remains below 90% at the end of Q4 2027.
Why it matters: Closing on the four properties could enhance revenue and returns. It is key for growth.
Supportive ifThe company closes on at least one of the four properties it wants to buy.
Worry ifNo properties close by the end of 2026. This shows problems in buying strategy.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend show how management uses money. A raise shows they believe in growth.
Supportive ifManagement will raise the dividend in 2027 due to better earnings.
Worry ifManagement maintains or cuts the dividend again in 2027.
Why it matters: A dividend increase shows financial health. It shows a commitment to shareholder returns.
Supportive ifThe company announces an increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.48 per share.
Worry ifThe company keeps or lowers the dividend amount.
Why it matters: Finishing these acquisitions can raise portfolio value. This will help long-term growth.
Supportive ifAt least one property from the $99 million pipeline closes by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNo properties from the $99 million pipeline close by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Closing on these properties would validate the growth strategy and improve portfolio quality. It is essential for future revenue.
Supportive ifAt least one of the four properties under contract closes by Q4 2026.
Worry ifNone of the properties under contract close by Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in cash from operations is important for financial stability. It shows the company can make cash.
Supportive ifCash from operations is over $13.74 million.
Worry ifCash from operations is under $13.74 million.