Community Healthcare Trust, Inc. (CHCT)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$14.51+11.10%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHCT
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name operates in a high-miss-rate industry and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHCT — earnings miss
Dated 2026-05-05
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 5, 2026, Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its earnings for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety. This information furnished pursuant to this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of t…
Why it matters: The 31% dividend cut targets a 60% AFFO payout ratio and $25 million to $30 million in retained cash over two years. Results will test that plan.
Watch forCHCT reports an AFFO payout ratio near or below 60%. It shows that saved cash funds acquisitions, property work, or higher occupancy.
Also watch forThe AFFO payout ratio rises above 60%, or CHCT reports no use of retained cash for the stated growth plans.
Why it matters: The real estate sector is mature, and the sector note flags slower growth. Faster rent growth at CHCT would be a positive change.
Supportive ifQ3 rental income growth year over year exceeds the Q2 rate of about 2.8%.
Worry ifQ3 rental income growth year over year is at or below the Q2 rate of about 2.8%.
Why it matters: The tenant paid more rent in Q2, but a sale of its business remains uncertain. New leases would clarify rent continuity at six sites.
Watch forCHCT confirms the business sale closed and new leases were signed for all six hospitals.
Also watch forCHCT reports the sale failed or the six new leases were not signed, or the tenant pays less than the $0.4 million reported for Q2.
Why it matters: Four properties under contract total about $99 million. Closings would put the planned growth and returns to a real-world test.
Supportive ifCHCT reports closing one contracted property in Q3 2026 and another in Q4 2026, with returns in the stated 9.1% to 9.75% range.
Worry ifA planned 2026 closing moves past year-end, is canceled, or reports returns below 9.1%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$98 on $10,000 · ±1.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $270 loss on $10,000 · 2.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,354 loss on $10,000 · 33.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management set a 92% occupancy goal for the next 18 to 24 months. Progress would support rent growth from the current portfolio.
Supportive ifThe next earnings report shows occupancy rising from the last reported level and on pace for 92% within 18 to 24 months.
Worry ifThe next earnings report shows occupancy flat or lower, with no clear path to 92% within 18 to 24 months.