Chemed Corp. (CHE)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$519.84-0.88%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Chemed grows revenue about 7% a year excluding Medicare Cap. EPS guidance for 2026 is raised to about $24.40 per share. The company maintains stable management and moderate risk. Its valuation is cheaper than peers with a price about 20% below analyst consensus expectations.
Revenue growth is slow at about 1.6% year over year recently. Profit margins at Roto-Rooter are uncertain with mixed progress. The company missed earnings in late 2025, showing some volatility in results.
The current price reflects about 8% revenue growth and is roughly 20% below analyst consensus estimates. Our view aligns with this growth but sees risk if revenue or EPS fall below guidance.
Breaks if: EPS guidance falls below $24.00 for FY26
Raise full-year 2026 earnings per diluted share guidance reflecting improved VITAS performance and share repurchases.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a stable, long-term thesis with a focus on the healthcare sector. The current state reflects strong recent financial performance and management execution, although there are concerns about potential guidance cuts and economic conditions.
Valuation is currently neutral, with CHE priced somewhat cheaply compared to peers. The market seems to expect continued strong performance, as indicated by a low expectations gap.
Management is on track with priorities to increase revenue growth and EPS guidance, while facing some challenges in maintaining EBITDA margins. Recent financial performance has been strong, but there is a moderate risk of missing future expectations.
The thesis hinges on maintaining positive sector momentum and avoiding guidance cuts. Key factors include the performance of sector bellwethers and the overall economic environment, particularly job growth.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improved outlook. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year 2026 EPS guidance midpoint from $24.375 in 2026-Q1 to $25.375 in 2026-Q2, reflecting VITAS outperformance and share repurchases. This represents a 17.8% increase over 2025 adjusted EPS of $21.55. The trajectory matches management's stated intent to increase EPS guidance.
“Full-year 2026 EPS guidance increased to $25.00 to $25.75 due mainly to VITAS outperformance.”
“Full-year 2026 EPS guidance revised to $24.00 to $24.75 reflecting strong VITAS performance and share repurchases.”
“Management reiterates previously issued guidance of $22.00 to $22.30 per share for 2025.”
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth excluding Medicare Cap falls below 6.5% in FY26
Focus on growing VITAS revenue and admissions while managing Medicare Cap impacts to return to normal growth patterns.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. VITAS revenue grew from approximately $396M in 2025-Q2 to $443.3M in 2026-Q2 (+11.9%), with admissions rising 9.0% in the same period. Management has consistently emphasized returning to normal growth post-Medicare Cap, and the trajectory is delivering with accelerating revenue and admissions growth.
“VITAS initiatives to return to normal growth after Medicare Cap progressed more quickly than anticipated.”
“VITAS initiatives to return to normal growth after managing 2025 Medicare Cap issue were more quickly successful than originally anticipated.”
“VITAS 2026 revenue, prior to Medicare Cap, is estimated to increase 5.5% to 6.5% compared to 2025.”
“Management reiterates guidance of VITAS revenue growth excluding Medicare Cap.”
Breaks if: EBITDA margin falls significantly below targeted range in FY26
Sustain Roto-Rooter's adjusted EBITDA margin near prior guidance despite headwinds and elevated marketing costs.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Roto-Rooter adjusted EBITDA margin declined from 22.5% in 2025-Q1 to 21.1% in 2026-Q2, reflecting headwinds and elevated marketing costs. Management lowered full-year 2026 margin guidance slightly to 21.5%-22.5%. The trajectory shows mixed delivery with margin pressure but ongoing focus on margin maintenance.
“Roto-Rooter adjusted EBITDA margin in 2026 expected to be 21.5% to 22.5%, slightly lowered due to elevated marketing costs.”
“Roto-Rooter adjusted EBITDA margin lowered slightly to 21.5% to 22.5% from original 22.5% to 23.0%.”
“Roto-Rooter adjusted EBITDA margin for 2025 expected to be 23.5% to 24.5%.”
“Management reiterates Roto-Rooter adjusted EBITDA margin guidance.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, CHE's performance will depend on continued execution by management and external economic factors. Not investment advice.