Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$114.36+0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHEF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 85.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 76.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 4 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHEF — officer change
Dated 2026-04-24
Director — Ivy Brown: Ms. Ivy Brown resigned from the Board for personal reasons.
Why it matters: Lower growth in operating income may mean costs are rising faster than revenue.
Worry ifOperating income growth reported below 15% year over year for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifOperating income growth reported at or above 15% year over year for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More unique customers can drive future sales growth and market share. It's a sign of demand.
Supportive ifUnique customer placements increase by more than 2% in Q2 2026.
Worry ifUnique customer placements decrease or remain flat in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Higher operating income shows good cost control and sales growth. This helps overall profits.
Supportive ifOperating income for Q2 2026 is over $30 million.
Worry ifOperating income for Q2 2026 falls below $30 million.
Why it matters: Organic sales growth is key for Chefs' Warehouse. A drop below 12% signals weakening demand.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth reported at or above 12%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic sales growth was below 12%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$132 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $325 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,048 loss on $10,000 · 20.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Operating income shows how efficient the company is. Below $50 million might mean problems.
Worry ifOperating income was at or above $50 million.
Less concerning ifOperating income was less than $50 million.
Why it matters: Margins are important for making money. If they drop below 25%, costs may be rising.
Worry ifGross profit margins reported below 25% for Q3.
Less concerning ifGross profit margins reported above 25% for Q3.
Why it matters: Adjusted EBITDA shows how well the company is doing. A drop may mean problems.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA was below $70 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q2 2026, adjusted EBITDA was at or above $70 million.
Why it matters: A slowdown in sales growth could signal weakening demand or market share loss. Investors watch for signs of revenue stability.
Worry ifQ3 net sales growth reported below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 net sales growth remains above 10% year over year.
Why it matters: Better margins show good cost management and pricing power. This is important for long-term profit.
Supportive ifGross profit margin improves by more than 50 basis points in Q3.
Worry ifGross profit margin declines or improves by less than 50 basis points in Q3.
Why it matters: Missing this target may mean operational issues or higher costs. It is a key profit measure.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA was below $305 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA was above $315 million for Q3.
Why it matters: New acquisitions can boost growth and market share. They show management's plan to grow.
Supportive ifThere was an announcement of an acquisition that expands products or market reach.
Worry ifNo acquisitions were announced in Q3, even though there was earlier guidance.