Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. (CHEF)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$106.84+5.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesFood DistributionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHEF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 1 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
CHEF — credit agreement
Dated 2026-10-19
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement New Credit Agreement On October 15, 2026, Dairyland USA Corporation (“Dairyland”) and Chefs’ Warehouse Parent, LLC (“CW Parent”), as borrowers (together, the “Borrowers”), and The Chefs’ Warehouse, Inc. (the “Company”) and certain other subsidiaries of the Company, as guarantors, entered into a new credit agreement (the “New Term Loan Credit Agreement”) with a group of lenders for which Jefferies Finance LLC (“Jefferies”) acts as administrative agent…
Why it matters: CHEF's gross margin rose in Q3, while selling and delivery costs also grew. A margin drop could weaken the gains from higher sales.
Watch forA later quarter reports gross margin at or above 25.0%.
Also watch forA later quarter reports gross margin below 25.0%.
Why it matters: The Middle East business was near 100% of prior-year sales in recent weeks. A further drop could signal a lasting hit to that business.
Watch forA later company update says Middle East revenue is at or above 100% of prior-year levels.
Also watch forA later company update says Middle East revenue is below 94% of prior-year levels. That was the level reported for May and June.
Why it matters: CHEF raised its 2026 profit outlook after strong third-quarter results. Results above the new range would show that growth is carrying into year-end.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA is above $317 million, the low end of the raised range.
Worry ifFull-year adjusted EBITDA is below $317 million. Or, management cuts the $317 million to $321 million range.
Why it matters: More customers and product placements can show that CHEF is gaining share. The latest quarter had 4.4% customer growth and 7.2% placement growth.
Supportive ifQ4 year-over-year unique customer growth stays at or above 4.4% and placement growth stays at or above 7.2%.
Worry ifQ4 unique customer growth falls below 4.4% or placement growth falls below 7.2%.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$134 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $338 loss on $10,000 · 3.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,048 loss on $10,000 · 20.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: CHEF refinanced its old loan with a new $675 million loan due in 2033. Later filings can show whether interest costs are rising or falling.
Watch forA later filing reports lower interest expense than Q3's $9.0 million, with the new loan in place.
Also watch forA later filing reports quarterly interest expense above $9.0 million, with the new loan in place.