Reading CHRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHRD free→Reading CHRD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CHRD free→NASDAQEnergyOil & Gas E&pSnapshot 2026-06-12
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality cannot be assessed as the company was unprofitable over the past year. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact future performance. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If CHRD cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $135.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $135 CHRD trades at 14× p/e, in line with its 13× p/e peer median. Our $127 fair value reflects that, low confidence. Analysts: $140–$189. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 7% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Energy names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1255).
Over the trailing year it converted -28.32x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
Not enough signal yet.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $5.55 → $6.04 (+8.7% / 30d). 6 raised, 3 cut, 12 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 81% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 24.6% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$188.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$400.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,458.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping CapEx shows smart spending. It helps production grow.
Confirms:CapEx reported at or below $1.4B for FY26.
Disproves:CapEx reported above $1.5B for FY26.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CHRD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
OF THIS CURRENT REPORT, INCLUDING EXHIBIT 99.1 ATTACHED HERETO, SHALL NOT BE DEEMED “FILED” FOR THE PURPOSES OF SECTION 18 OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934, AS AMENDED, NOR SHALL IT BE DEEMED INCORPORATED BY REFERENCE INTO ANY REGISTRATION STATEMENT OR OTHER FILING PURSUANT TO THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933, AS AMENDED, EXCEPT AS OTHERWISE EXPRESSLY STATED IN SUCH FILING. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the Registrant has duly caused this repor…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$140.00 – $189.00 (median $175.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-05-27
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Oil & Gas Exploration & Production.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CHRD Chord Energy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | full | moderate |
COP ConocoPhillips | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
EOG EOG Resources | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | full | moderate |
OXY Occidental Petroleum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
FANG Diamondback Energy | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 51 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
via XLE
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-12.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Chord Energy aims to keep capital expenditures at $1.4 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Chord Energy targets $3.1 billion in Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal year 2026.
Chord Energy aims to generate $1.4 billion in Adjusted Free Cash Flow for fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Unemployment claims can impact energy demand. A rise in claims may signal economic weakness that could hurt Chord Energy.
Confirms:Unemployment claims fall below 200,000. This shows a strong job market.
Disproves:Unemployment claims are over 300,000. This shows the economy is weak.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating guidance shows good operations. It helps free cash flow grow.
Confirms:2Q26 oil volume guidance is confirmed at 164 MBopd or higher.
Disproves:2Q26 oil volume guidance falls below 162.5 MBopd.
Why it matters: If energy sector revenue growth speeds up, it could help Chord Energy's performance. This would signal a potential recovery in the energy market.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to 8% or more year-over-year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth stays below 6% year-over-year. This shows continued weakness.
Why it matters: Reaching this target shows strong finances and good operations.
Confirms:FY26 Adjusted EBITDA reported at or above $3.1B.
Disproves:FY26 Adjusted EBITDA was below $2.9B.
Why it matters: Updates will show how well the project is going. They may also show growth.
Confirms one read:Good updates on the 4-mile lateral projects will mean more production.
Confirms the other:Look for delays or problems in the 4-mile lateral project.