Charter Communications (CHTR)
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$151.99+0.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQCommunication ServicesTelecommunications ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHTR
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -60.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers
CHTR — credit agreement
Dated 2026-08-26
ENTRY INTO A MATERIAL DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT. As previously reported, on August 19, 2026, Charter Communications, Inc. (“Charter”) and its subsidiaries completed the transactions (the “Transaction”) contemplated by the Transaction Agreement, dated as of May 16, 2025, by and among Charter, Charter Communications Holdings, LLC and Cox Enterprises, Inc. (“Cox Enterprises”), pursuant to which Charter acquired the commercial fiber and managed IT and cloud services businesses of Cox Communications, L…
Why it matters: A bigger drop shows more competition and could hurt revenue.
Worry ifResidential Internet customers drop by more than 172,000 in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifResidential Internet customers drop by less than 172,000 in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Sticking to CAPEX guidance shows financial discipline and supports growth plans.
Supportive ifQuarterly capital spending is at or below $2.9 billion.
Worry ifThe company spends more than $3.2 billion each quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in revenue shows Charter is improving and the sector is doing better.
Supportive ifQuarterly revenue growth exceeds 0% year over year.
Worry ifQuarterly revenue growth remains negative year over year.
Why it matters: If video revenue keeps falling, it may show bigger problems for Charter's customers.
Worry ifResidential video revenue in Q2 2026 declines more than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifIn Q2 2026, residential video revenue stays the same or grows compared to last year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$235 on $10,000 · ±2.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $459 loss on $10,000 · 4.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,639 loss on $10,000 · 56.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A bigger revenue drop shows ongoing problems in video and Internet segments.
Worry ifTotal revenue declines more than 1.7% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue declines less than 1.7% year-over-year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Strong mobile line growth shows Charter's plan is working and bringing in customers.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 mobile line growth exceeds 400,000, indicating strong demand.
Worry ifMobile line growth below 300,000 means there are problems attracting new customers.
Why it matters: Nick Jeffery's leadership may improve customer satisfaction. This could help Charter grow.
Supportive ifCustomer satisfaction metrics go up a lot in the months after Jeffery starts.
Worry ifCustomer satisfaction metrics drop or do not change after the new COO is named.
Why it matters: Following capital spending guidance shows Charter is serious about its growth plan.
Supportive ifIn Q2 2026, capital spending matches the $11.4 billion yearly guidance.
Worry ifIn Q2 2026, capital spending is much lower than the guidance.
Why it matters: Changes in customer relationships show Charter can keep and grow its customers.
Worry ifCustomer relationships drop by over 1.5% from last year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCustomer relationships change by less than 1.5% from last year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Keeping capital spending in check shows financial discipline. This supports growth plans and is important for investor trust.
Supportive ifCAPEX remains at or below $2.9 billion for the next quarter.
Worry ifCAPEX exceeds $3.2 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Finishing the Cox deal could change Charter's market position and growth.
Watch forAnnouncement of when the transaction will close.
Also watch forMore delays in closing the deal or new problems come up.
Why it matters: Trends in adjusted EBITDA margin show how well the company operates and makes money. This is important for investor trust.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin drops below 39% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays above 40% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If customer losses stop, it shows customers are happier and value the product.
Supportive ifCustomer losses are down less than 1% each quarter.
Worry ifCustomer losses are up more than 1% each quarter.
Why it matters: A larger loss would signal ongoing issues in retaining Internet customers. This could hurt revenue.
Worry ifQ2 Internet customer losses are more than 120,000 compared to Q1.
Less concerning ifQ2 Internet customer losses less than or equal to 120,000.
Why it matters: If customer relationships stop getting worse, more customers will stay happy. This is important for making money in the future.
Supportive ifTotal customer relationships decline less than 1% in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal customer relationships decline more than 1% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Growth in mobile lines helps Charter's network plan and boosts revenue.
Supportive ifSpectrum Mobile lines grow by more than 400,000 in Q3 2026.
Worry ifMobile line growth falls below 400,000 in Q3 2026.