Chewy (CHWY)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
$23.00-1.71%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · CHWY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -1.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 8.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 9.6 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 14 industry peers
CHWY — earnings miss
Dated 2026-09-09
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On September 9, 2026, Chewy, Inc. (the “Company”) announced its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 ended August 2, 2026, by issuing a press release. The Company previously announced that it would be holding a conference call on September 9, 2026, at 8 a.m. Eastern Time to discuss its financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 ended August 2, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1…
Why it matters: Gross margin was 30.4% in Q2, up from 30.1% in Q1. A fall below Q1 would reverse that gain.
Worry ifQ3 gross margin falls below 30.1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 gross margin stays at or above 30.1%.
Why it matters: Management raised its full-year sales and profit outlook after Q2. Q3 results will show whether that higher bar is being met.
Watch forQ3 sales and adjusted EBITDA margin meet or exceed the full-year outlook set after Q2.
Also watch forQ3 sales or adjusted EBITDA margin falls short of the full-year outlook set after Q2.
Why it matters: The deal needs court approval to end the case. A final ruling will clarify whether the claims are settled.
Watch forThe Delaware court approves the settlement and ends the case with no option to file it again.
Also watch forThe court rejects the settlement or the case continues without final approval.
Why it matters: Q2 sales grew 5.7% without SmartPak and Modern Animal. A slower pace would test Chewy’s growth trend.
Worry ifQ3 sales growth, excluding SmartPak and Modern Animal, falls below 5.7% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 sales growth, excluding SmartPak and Modern Animal, is 5.7% or higher year over year.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$172 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $473 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,049 loss on $10,000 · 50.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.